We publish no single base value for Cencora. Our valuation methods put it between $279.63 and $431.58 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $431.58 | +23.5% | free cash flow $3.88bn, growth 5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.46%; stress floor $271.44 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $279.63 | -20.0% | earnings per share $19.65 valued at 17.46× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.58 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.61 (85% own, 15% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.74 (0.67 × 0.61 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.46% |
Free cash flow grows 5.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.88bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.00% | $4.07bn | 0.9220 | $3.76bn |
| Year 2 | 5.00% | $4.28bn | 0.8501 | $3.64bn |
| Year 3 | 5.00% | $4.49bn | 0.7838 | $3.52bn |
| Year 4 | 5.00% | $4.72bn | 0.7226 | $3.41bn |
| Year 5 | 5.00% | $4.95bn | 0.6663 | $3.30bn |
| Year 6 | 4.67% | $5.18bn | 0.6143 | $3.18bn |
| Year 7 | 4.33% | $5.41bn | 0.5664 | $3.06bn |
| Year 8 | 4.00% | $5.62bn | 0.5222 | $2.94bn |
| Year 9 | 3.67% | $5.83bn | 0.4815 | $2.81bn |
| Year 10 | 3.33% | $6.03bn | 0.4439 | $2.67bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.46% − 3%) | $113.67bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $50.46bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $32.29bn |
| Total present value | $82.75bn |
| Shares outstanding | 191.74m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $431.58 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0% | Growth 5% | Growth 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.46% | $386.26 | $530.22 | $723.72 |
| 8.46% | $317.34 | $431.58 | — |
| 9.46% | $269.68 | $363.55 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.58 | 7.74% | $498.39 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $420.97 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.74 | 8.46% | $431.58 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.65 |
| Year 1 | 5.00% | $20.64 |
| Year 2 | 4.40% | $21.55 |
| Year 3 | 3.98% | $22.40 |
| Year 4 | 3.69% | $23.23 |
| Year 5 | 3.48% | $24.04 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $24.04 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.46× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $419.69 |
| Discounted at 8.46% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5009 | $279.63 |
We publish no single base value for Cencora. Our valuation methods put it between $279.63 and $431.58 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $269.27 and a 10% chance it is above $503.97 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $349.38, from 24.33% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.46% a year.
At $349.38 the price implies free cash flow growing 1.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $309.05 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $323.85 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $340.92 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $331.00 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $330.84 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $333.56 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $349.38 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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