On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Copart is $22.12 a share, 30.9% below its $32.00 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $22.12 | -30.9% | free cash flow $1.27bn, growth 0.41% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.68%; plus net cash $4.60 a share; stress floor $18.04 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 30.4x is 1.5x the 19.7x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.01 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.01 (68% own, 32% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.01 (0.67 × 1.01 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.68% |
Free cash flow grows 0.41% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.27bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.41% | $1.27bn | 0.9118 | $1.16bn |
| Year 2 | 0.41% | $1.28bn | 0.8314 | $1.06bn |
| Year 3 | 0.41% | $1.28bn | 0.7580 | $972.36m |
| Year 4 | 0.41% | $1.29bn | 0.6911 | $890.22m |
| Year 5 | 0.41% | $1.29bn | 0.6302 | $815.02m |
| Year 6 | 0.84% | $1.30bn | 0.5746 | $749.38m |
| Year 7 | 1.27% | $1.32bn | 0.5239 | $691.97m |
| Year 8 | 1.70% | $1.34bn | 0.4777 | $641.69m |
| Year 9 | 2.14% | $1.37bn | 0.4355 | $597.58m |
| Year 10 | 2.57% | $1.41bn | 0.3971 | $558.86m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.68% − 3%) | $21.72bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.62bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.14bn |
| Total present value | $16.76bn |
| Shares outstanding | 956.86m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $17.52 |
| Plus net cash per share | $4.60 |
| Value per share | $22.12 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.59% | Growth 0.41% | Growth 5.41% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.68% | $19.68 | $25.11 | $32.43 |
| 9.68% | $17.60 | $22.12 | $28.17 |
| 10.68% | $16.06 | $19.90 | $25.02 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $22.12 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $22.00 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.01 | 9.68% | $22.12 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $22.12 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $22.12
Base value $22.12 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $19.89 and a 10% chance it is above $53.53 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $32.00, from 38.42% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.68% a year.
At $32.00 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $27.22 | $17.32 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $27.32 | $17.20 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $27.87 | $21.89 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $29.00 | $22.10 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $30.13 | $22.63 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $31.95 | $22.82 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $32.00 | $22.12 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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