We publish no single base value for CSX Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $28.81 and $30.52 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $30.52 | -41.8% | free cash flow $3.21bn, growth 5.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; stress floor $19.96 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $28.81 | -45.0% | earnings per share $2.05 valued at 18.12× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Rail' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.11 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.09 (82% own, 18% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.09 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows 5.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.21bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.80% | $3.40bn | 0.9099 | $3.09bn |
| Year 2 | 5.80% | $3.60bn | 0.8280 | $2.98bn |
| Year 3 | 5.80% | $3.81bn | 0.7534 | $2.87bn |
| Year 4 | 5.80% | $4.03bn | 0.6855 | $2.76bn |
| Year 5 | 5.80% | $4.26bn | 0.6238 | $2.66bn |
| Year 6 | 5.33% | $4.49bn | 0.5676 | $2.55bn |
| Year 7 | 4.87% | $4.70bn | 0.5164 | $2.43bn |
| Year 8 | 4.40% | $4.91bn | 0.4699 | $2.31bn |
| Year 9 | 3.93% | $5.11bn | 0.4276 | $2.18bn |
| Year 10 | 3.47% | $5.28bn | 0.3891 | $2.06bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $78.85bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $30.68bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $25.88bn |
| Total present value | $56.55bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.85bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $30.52 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.8% | Growth 5.8% | Growth 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $26.48 | $35.86 | — |
| 9.90% | $22.73 | $30.52 | — |
| 10.90% | $19.93 | $26.54 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.11 | 10.12% | $29.53 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $31.58 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $30.52 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.05 |
| Year 1 | 5.80% | $2.17 |
| Year 2 | 4.82% | $2.28 |
| Year 3 | 4.18% | $2.37 |
| Year 4 | 3.77% | $2.46 |
| Year 5 | 3.50% | $2.55 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.55 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.12× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $46.18 |
| Discounted at 9.90% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6032 | $28.81 |
We publish no single base value for CSX Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $28.81 and $30.52 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $41.14 and a 10% chance it is above $76.47 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $52.40, from 24.06% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $52.40 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $47.43 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $47.26 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $48.68 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $50.79 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $51.99 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $49.12 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $52.40 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on CSX · CSX Corporation company page · Call and put prices