On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Carvana is $161.34 a share, 127.8% above its $70.84 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $161.34 | +127.8% | free cash flow $1.11bn, growth 42.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.16%; stress floor $40.58 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 3.63 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.91) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.51 (17% own, 83% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.34 (0.67 × 1.51 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.16% |
Free cash flow grows 42.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.11bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 42.40% | $1.58bn | 0.8996 | $1.43bn |
| Year 2 | 42.40% | $2.26bn | 0.8093 | $1.83bn |
| Year 3 | 42.40% | $3.21bn | 0.7280 | $2.34bn |
| Year 4 | 42.40% | $4.58bn | 0.6549 | $3.00bn |
| Year 5 | 42.40% | $6.52bn | 0.5892 | $3.84bn |
| Year 6 | 35.83% | $8.85bn | 0.5300 | $4.69bn |
| Year 7 | 29.27% | $11.44bn | 0.4768 | $5.46bn |
| Year 8 | 22.70% | $14.04bn | 0.4290 | $6.02bn |
| Year 9 | 16.13% | $16.31bn | 0.3859 | $6.29bn |
| Year 10 | 9.57% | $17.87bn | 0.3471 | $6.20bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.16% − 3%) | $225.51bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $78.29bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $41.09bn |
| Total present value | $119.38bn |
| Shares outstanding | 739.91m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $161.34 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 37.4% | Growth 42.4% | Growth 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.16% | $147.58 | $191.02 | $245.82 |
| 11.16% | $125.01 | $161.34 | $207.10 |
| 12.16% | $107.61 | $138.48 | $177.31 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 3.63 | 21.46% | $50.67 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $195.36 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.34 | 11.16% | $161.34 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $161.34 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $161.34
Base value $161.34 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $28.97 and a 10% chance it is above $144.97 in a year; a 45% chance it is higher than today's $70.84, from 62.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.16% a year.
At $70.84 the price implies free cash flow growing 26.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 42.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $63.77 | $29.55 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $63.73 | $29.68 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $58.83 | $222.32 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $57.81 | $225.45 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $68.29 | $166.54 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $73.57 | $168.38 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $70.84 | $161.34 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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