We publish no single base value for CVS Health. Our valuation methods put it between $67.89 and $261.28 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $261.28 | +191.0% | free cash flow $15.57bn, growth 5.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.5%; stress floor $162.63 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $67.89 | -24.4% | earnings per share $8.26 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.6×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Corporate/Other' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.58 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.63 (75% own, 25% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.75 (0.67 × 0.63 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.50% |
Free cash flow grows 5.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.57bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.40% | $16.41bn | 0.9216 | $15.12bn |
| Year 2 | 5.40% | $17.29bn | 0.8494 | $14.69bn |
| Year 3 | 5.40% | $18.23bn | 0.7828 | $14.27bn |
| Year 4 | 5.40% | $19.21bn | 0.7214 | $13.86bn |
| Year 5 | 5.40% | $20.25bn | 0.6649 | $13.46bn |
| Year 6 | 5.00% | $21.26bn | 0.6128 | $13.03bn |
| Year 7 | 4.60% | $22.24bn | 0.5647 | $12.56bn |
| Year 8 | 4.20% | $23.17bn | 0.5205 | $12.06bn |
| Year 9 | 3.80% | $24.05bn | 0.4797 | $11.54bn |
| Year 10 | 3.40% | $24.87bn | 0.4421 | $11.00bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.50% − 3%) | $465.37bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $205.73bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $131.59bn |
| Total present value | $337.32bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.29bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $261.28 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.4% | Growth 5.4% | Growth 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | $233.77 | $320.63 | $437.27 |
| 8.50% | $192.26 | $261.28 | — |
| 9.50% | $163.46 | $220.23 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.58 | 7.74% | $304.42 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $256.99 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.75 | 8.50% | $261.28 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.26 |
| Year 1 | 5.40% | $8.71 |
| Year 2 | 4.68% | $9.12 |
| Year 3 | 4.18% | $9.50 |
| Year 4 | 3.82% | $9.86 |
| Year 5 | 3.58% | $10.21 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.21 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.6×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $102.11 |
| Discounted at 8.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5040 | $67.89 |
We publish no single base value for CVS Health. Our valuation methods put it between $67.89 and $261.28 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $55.61 and a 10% chance it is above $147.86 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $89.79, from 37.96% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.5% a year.
At $89.79 the price implies free cash flow growing -11.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $86.46 | $67.96 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $86.16 | $67.89 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $92.36 | $69.13 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $93.47 | $69.40 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $90.25 | $69.75 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $83.85 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $89.79 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on CVS · CVS Health company page · Call and put prices