We publish no single base value for Delta Air Lines. Our valuation methods put it between $49.32 and $229.27 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $229.27 | +164.9% | free cash flow $5.68bn, growth 14.11% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.35%; stress floor $118.76 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $49.32 | -43.0% | earnings per share $5.35 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.5×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | $114.30 | +32.1% | Airline at 15×; Refinery at 10× |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.43 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.28) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.24 (54% own, 46% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.16 (0.67 × 1.24 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.35% |
Free cash flow grows 14.11% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.68bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.11% | $6.48bn | 0.9062 | $5.87bn |
| Year 2 | 14.11% | $7.40bn | 0.8212 | $6.07bn |
| Year 3 | 14.11% | $8.44bn | 0.7442 | $6.28bn |
| Year 4 | 14.11% | $9.63bn | 0.6744 | $6.49bn |
| Year 5 | 14.11% | $10.99bn | 0.6111 | $6.72bn |
| Year 6 | 12.26% | $12.34bn | 0.5538 | $6.83bn |
| Year 7 | 10.41% | $13.62bn | 0.5019 | $6.84bn |
| Year 8 | 8.55% | $14.79bn | 0.4548 | $6.72bn |
| Year 9 | 6.70% | $15.78bn | 0.4121 | $6.50bn |
| Year 10 | 4.85% | $16.54bn | 0.3735 | $6.18bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.35% − 3%) | $231.81bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $86.58bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $64.51bn |
| Total present value | $151.09bn |
| Shares outstanding | 659.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $229.27 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 9.11% | Growth 14.11% | Growth 19.11% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.35% | — | $269.58 | $359.59 |
| 10.35% | — | $229.27 | $304.12 |
| 11.35% | $150.19 | $198.79 | $262.26 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.43 | 11.56% | $193.19 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $255.13 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.16 | 10.35% | $229.27 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.35 |
| Year 1 | 14.11% | $6.11 |
| Year 2 | 10.22% | $6.73 |
| Year 3 | 7.69% | $7.25 |
| Year 4 | 6.05% | $7.69 |
| Year 5 | 4.98% | $8.07 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.07 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.5×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $80.69 |
| Discounted at 10.35% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6363 | $49.32 |
We publish no single base value for Delta Air Lines. Our valuation methods put it between $49.32 and $229.27 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $55.46 and a 10% chance it is above $143.95 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $86.55, from 37.02% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.35% a year.
At $86.55 the price implies free cash flow growing -2.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 14.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $84.09 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $82.17 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $75.37 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $76.78 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $80.15 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $87.20 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $86.55 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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