On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for DoorDash is $360.90 a share, 109.1% above its $172.58 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $360.90 | +109.1% | free cash flow $2.35bn, growth 34% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.56%; plus net cash $8.00 a share; stress floor $119.02 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 80.9x is 2.1x the 37.6x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.97 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.32) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.64 (63% own, 37% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.43 (0.67 × 1.64 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.56% |
Free cash flow grows 34.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.35bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 34.00% | $3.15bn | 0.8963 | $2.82bn |
| Year 2 | 34.00% | $4.22bn | 0.8034 | $3.39bn |
| Year 3 | 34.00% | $5.65bn | 0.7201 | $4.07bn |
| Year 4 | 34.00% | $7.57bn | 0.6455 | $4.89bn |
| Year 5 | 34.00% | $10.15bn | 0.5786 | $5.87bn |
| Year 6 | 28.83% | $13.07bn | 0.5186 | $6.78bn |
| Year 7 | 23.67% | $16.17bn | 0.4648 | $7.52bn |
| Year 8 | 18.50% | $19.16bn | 0.4167 | $7.98bn |
| Year 9 | 13.33% | $21.72bn | 0.3735 | $8.11bn |
| Year 10 | 8.17% | $23.49bn | 0.3347 | $7.86bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.56% − 3%) | $282.47bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $94.56bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $59.29bn |
| Total present value | $153.85bn |
| Shares outstanding | 435.96m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $352.90 |
| Plus net cash per share | $8.00 |
| Value per share | $360.90 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 29% | Growth 34% | Growth 39% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.56% | $324.30 | $420.81 | $543.76 |
| 11.56% | $279.37 | $360.90 | $464.56 |
| 12.56% | $244.25 | $314.13 | $402.81 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.97 | 14.00% | $262.89 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $459.84 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.43 | 11.56% | $360.90 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $360.90 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $360.90
Base value $360.90 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $89.75 and a 10% chance it is above $323.68 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $172.58, from 49.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.56% a year.
At $172.58 the price implies free cash flow growing 19.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 34.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $189.15 | $99.29 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $196.50 | $96.31 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $189.15 | $351.54 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $179.38 | $355.99 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $178.99 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $179.67 | $375.19 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $172.58 | $360.90 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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