We publish no single base value for Datadog. Our valuation methods put it between $241.22 and $370.89 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $241.22 | +30.8% | free cash flow $1.17bn, growth 33.21% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.53%; plus net cash $10.47 a share; stress floor $81.50 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $370.89 | +101.1% | earnings per share $2.75 valued at 85.02× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.50 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.46) |
| Peer beta | 1.21 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.30 (32% own, 68% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.20 (0.67 × 1.30 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.53% |
Free cash flow grows 33.21% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.17bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 33.21% | $1.56bn | 0.9047 | $1.41bn |
| Year 2 | 33.21% | $2.08bn | 0.8185 | $1.70bn |
| Year 3 | 33.21% | $2.77bn | 0.7406 | $2.05bn |
| Year 4 | 33.21% | $3.69bn | 0.6700 | $2.47bn |
| Year 5 | 33.21% | $4.91bn | 0.6062 | $2.98bn |
| Year 6 | 28.18% | $6.29bn | 0.5484 | $3.45bn |
| Year 7 | 23.14% | $7.75bn | 0.4962 | $3.85bn |
| Year 8 | 18.11% | $9.15bn | 0.4489 | $4.11bn |
| Year 9 | 13.07% | $10.35bn | 0.4061 | $4.20bn |
| Year 10 | 8.04% | $11.18bn | 0.3675 | $4.11bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.53% − 3%) | $152.96bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $56.21bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $30.33bn |
| Total present value | $86.53bn |
| Shares outstanding | 375.01m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $230.75 |
| Plus net cash per share | $10.47 |
| Value per share | $241.22 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 28.21% | Growth 33.21% | Growth 38.21% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.53% | $220.22 | $285.51 | $368.94 |
| 10.53% | $187.10 | $241.22 | $310.24 |
| 11.53% | $162.01 | $207.72 | $265.90 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.50 | 11.88% | $197.87 |
| Peer beta | 1.21 | 10.57% | $239.51 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.20 | 10.53% | $241.22 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.75 |
| Year 1 | 33.21% | $3.66 |
| Year 2 | 25.66% | $4.60 |
| Year 3 | 19.99% | $5.52 |
| Year 4 | 15.74% | $6.39 |
| Year 5 | 12.56% | $7.20 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.20 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 85.02× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $611.85 |
| Discounted at 10.53% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6497 | $370.89 |
We publish no single base value for Datadog. Our valuation methods put it between $241.22 and $370.89 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $66.35 and a 10% chance it is above $390.05 in a year; a 42% chance it is higher than today's $184.46, from 68.76% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.53% a year.
At $184.46 the price implies free cash flow growing 27.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 33.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $277.22 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $293.26 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $247.11 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $269.65 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $235.27 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $179.04 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $184.46 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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