We publish no single base value for Deere & Company. Our valuation methods put it between $247.49 and $257.31 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $257.31 | -62.1% | free cash flow $3.87bn, growth 4.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.4%; stress floor $169.69 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $247.49 | -63.5% | earnings per share $18.11 valued at 17.56× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'PPA' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.88 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.93 (67% own, 33% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.95 (0.67 × 0.93 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.40% |
Free cash flow grows 4.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.87bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.90% | $4.06bn | 0.9140 | $3.71bn |
| Year 2 | 4.90% | $4.26bn | 0.8355 | $3.56bn |
| Year 3 | 4.90% | $4.46bn | 0.7636 | $3.41bn |
| Year 4 | 4.90% | $4.68bn | 0.6980 | $3.27bn |
| Year 5 | 4.90% | $4.91bn | 0.6380 | $3.13bn |
| Year 6 | 4.58% | $5.14bn | 0.5831 | $3.00bn |
| Year 7 | 4.27% | $5.36bn | 0.5330 | $2.85bn |
| Year 8 | 3.95% | $5.57bn | 0.4872 | $2.71bn |
| Year 9 | 3.63% | $5.77bn | 0.4453 | $2.57bn |
| Year 10 | 3.32% | $5.96bn | 0.4070 | $2.43bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.40% − 3%) | $95.87bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $39.02bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $30.63bn |
| Total present value | $69.65bn |
| Shares outstanding | 270.70m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $257.31 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.1% | Growth 4.9% | Growth 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.40% | $224.80 | $305.90 | — |
| 9.40% | $190.77 | $257.31 | — |
| 10.40% | $165.89 | $221.89 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $270.89 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $245.01 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.95 | 9.40% | $257.31 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $18.11 |
| Year 1 | 4.90% | $19.00 |
| Year 2 | 4.33% | $19.82 |
| Year 3 | 3.93% | $20.60 |
| Year 4 | 3.65% | $21.35 |
| Year 5 | 3.46% | $22.09 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $22.09 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.56× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $387.92 |
| Discounted at 9.40% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5674 | $247.49 |
We publish no single base value for Deere & Company. Our valuation methods put it between $247.49 and $257.31 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $468.44 and a 10% chance it is above $1,066.36 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $678.79, from 31.93% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.4% a year.
At $678.79 the price implies free cash flow growing 21.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $687.00 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $620.93 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $641.86 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $646.15 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $675.48 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $671.65 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $678.79 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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