We publish no single base value for Deckers Brands. Our valuation methods put it between $92.54 and $123.78 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $123.78 | +46.4% | free cash flow $1.05bn, growth 3.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.95%; plus net cash $4.95 a share; stress floor $88.50 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $92.54 | +9.5% | earnings per share $7.85 valued at 16.1× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.10 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.30) |
| Peer beta | 1.11 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.10 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.07 (0.67 × 1.10 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.95% |
Free cash flow grows 3.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.05bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.50% | $1.09bn | 0.9095 | $990.90m |
| Year 2 | 3.50% | $1.13bn | 0.8273 | $932.81m |
| Year 3 | 3.50% | $1.17bn | 0.7524 | $878.13m |
| Year 4 | 3.50% | $1.21bn | 0.6844 | $826.66m |
| Year 5 | 3.50% | $1.25bn | 0.6225 | $778.20m |
| Year 6 | 3.42% | $1.29bn | 0.5662 | $731.99m |
| Year 7 | 3.33% | $1.34bn | 0.5150 | $687.97m |
| Year 8 | 3.25% | $1.38bn | 0.4684 | $646.08m |
| Year 9 | 3.17% | $1.42bn | 0.4260 | $606.24m |
| Year 10 | 3.08% | $1.47bn | 0.3875 | $568.41m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.95% − 3%) | $21.76bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.43bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.65bn |
| Total present value | $16.08bn |
| Shares outstanding | 135.30m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $118.83 |
| Plus net cash per share | $4.95 |
| Value per share | $123.78 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.5% | Growth 3.5% | Growth 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.95% | $107.47 | $143.88 | — |
| 9.95% | $93.42 | $123.78 | — |
| 10.95% | $82.87 | $108.74 | $143.05 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.10 | 10.08% | $121.50 |
| Peer beta | 1.11 | 10.12% | $120.76 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.07 | 9.95% | $123.78 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.85 |
| Year 1 | 3.50% | $8.12 |
| Year 2 | 3.38% | $8.40 |
| Year 3 | 3.28% | $8.67 |
| Year 4 | 3.21% | $8.95 |
| Year 5 | 3.16% | $9.23 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.23 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 16.1× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $148.67 |
| Discounted at 9.95% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6065 | $92.54 |
We publish no single base value for Deckers Brands. Our valuation methods put it between $92.54 and $123.78 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $55.45 and a 10% chance it is above $137.92 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $84.53, from 35.37% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.95% a year.
At $84.53 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $79.12 | $114.67 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $82.89 | $116.88 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $85.71 | $148.38 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $81.09 | $132.70 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $81.99 | $127.25 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $86.71 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $84.53 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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