We publish no single base value for Dollar General. Our valuation methods put it between $120.81 and $310.98 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $310.98 | +131.0% | free cash flow $2.70bn, growth 4.77% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.52%; stress floor $185.84 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $120.81 | -10.3% | earnings per share $7.91 valued at 18.05× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.19 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.30) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.30 (42% own, 58% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.53 (0.67 × 0.30 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.52% |
Free cash flow grows 4.77% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.70bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.77% | $2.83bn | 0.9301 | $2.63bn |
| Year 2 | 4.77% | $2.96bn | 0.8651 | $2.56bn |
| Year 3 | 4.77% | $3.11bn | 0.8046 | $2.50bn |
| Year 4 | 4.77% | $3.25bn | 0.7484 | $2.44bn |
| Year 5 | 4.77% | $3.41bn | 0.6961 | $2.37bn |
| Year 6 | 4.47% | $3.56bn | 0.6474 | $2.31bn |
| Year 7 | 4.18% | $3.71bn | 0.6022 | $2.23bn |
| Year 8 | 3.88% | $3.86bn | 0.5601 | $2.16bn |
| Year 9 | 3.59% | $3.99bn | 0.5209 | $2.08bn |
| Year 10 | 3.29% | $4.13bn | 0.4845 | $2.00bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.52% − 3%) | $94.11bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $45.60bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $23.29bn |
| Total present value | $68.88bn |
| Shares outstanding | 221.50m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $310.98 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.23% | Growth 4.77% | Growth 9.77% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.52% | $289.17 | — | $551.51 |
| 7.52% | $226.62 | $310.98 | $424.41 |
| 8.52% | $186.68 | $253.80 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.19 | 5.98% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $366.46 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.53 | 7.52% | $310.98 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.91 |
| Year 1 | 4.77% | $8.29 |
| Year 2 | 4.24% | $8.64 |
| Year 3 | 3.87% | $8.97 |
| Year 4 | 3.61% | $9.30 |
| Year 5 | 3.42% | $9.62 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.62 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.05× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $173.56 |
| Discounted at 7.52% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4366 | $120.81 |
We publish no single base value for Dollar General. Our valuation methods put it between $120.81 and $310.98 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $81.28 and a 10% chance it is above $221.30 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $134.61, from 38.88% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.52% a year.
At $134.61 the price implies free cash flow growing -8.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $118.94 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $127.23 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $134.36 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $132.69 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $132.30 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $133.75 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $134.61 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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