We publish no single base value for D. R. Horton. Our valuation methods put it between $51.80 and $112.71 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $112.71 | -22.0% | free cash flow $3.32bn, growth -3.52% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.48%; stress floor $100.03 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $51.80 | -64.1% | earnings per share $8.80 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.6×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.35 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.28 (73% own, 27% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.19 (0.67 × 1.28 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.48% |
Free cash flow grows -3.52% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.32bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -3.52% | $3.21bn | 0.9051 | $2.90bn |
| Year 2 | -3.52% | $3.09bn | 0.8192 | $2.53bn |
| Year 3 | -3.52% | $2.99bn | 0.7415 | $2.21bn |
| Year 4 | -3.52% | $2.88bn | 0.6711 | $1.93bn |
| Year 5 | -3.52% | $2.78bn | 0.6074 | $1.69bn |
| Year 6 | -2.43% | $2.71bn | 0.5498 | $1.49bn |
| Year 7 | -1.35% | $2.67bn | 0.4976 | $1.33bn |
| Year 8 | -0.26% | $2.67bn | 0.4504 | $1.20bn |
| Year 9 | 0.83% | $2.69bn | 0.4076 | $1.10bn |
| Year 10 | 1.91% | $2.74bn | 0.3689 | $1.01bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.48% − 3%) | $37.72bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $13.92bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $17.40bn |
| Total present value | $31.32bn |
| Shares outstanding | 277.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $112.71 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -8.52% | Growth -3.52% | Growth 1.48% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | $95.29 | $128.58 | $173.50 |
| 10.48% | $84.39 | $112.71 | $150.70 |
| 11.48% | $75.98 | $100.52 | $133.26 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.35 | 11.21% | $103.64 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $119.30 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.19 | 10.48% | $112.71 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.80 |
| Year 1 | -3.52% | $8.49 |
| Year 2 | -1.56% | $8.36 |
| Year 3 | -0.19% | $8.34 |
| Year 4 | 0.76% | $8.41 |
| Year 5 | 1.43% | $8.53 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.53 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.6×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $85.28 |
| Discounted at 10.48% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6463 | $51.80 |
We publish no single base value for D. R. Horton. Our valuation methods put it between $51.80 and $112.71 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $90.41 and a 10% chance it is above $243.83 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $144.45, from 38.51% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.48% a year.
At $144.45 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -3.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $135.00 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $134.88 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $139.39 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $147.48 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $146.00 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $152.28 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $144.45 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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