On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Walt Disney Company (The) is $70.04 a share, 40.8% below its $118.23 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $70.04 | -40.8% | free cash flow $8.29bn, growth 4.58% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.66%; stress floor $48.77 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 23.9x is 1.5x the 15.8x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing states no operating profit for 'Entertainment'. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.44 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.34 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.23 (0.67 × 1.34 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.66% |
Free cash flow grows 4.58% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.29bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.58% | $8.67bn | 0.9036 | $7.84bn |
| Year 2 | 4.58% | $9.07bn | 0.8165 | $7.41bn |
| Year 3 | 4.58% | $9.49bn | 0.7379 | $7.00bn |
| Year 4 | 4.58% | $9.92bn | 0.6667 | $6.61bn |
| Year 5 | 4.58% | $10.37bn | 0.6025 | $6.25bn |
| Year 6 | 4.32% | $10.82bn | 0.5444 | $5.89bn |
| Year 7 | 4.05% | $11.26bn | 0.4920 | $5.54bn |
| Year 8 | 3.79% | $11.69bn | 0.4445 | $5.20bn |
| Year 9 | 3.53% | $12.10bn | 0.4017 | $4.86bn |
| Year 10 | 3.26% | $12.49bn | 0.3630 | $4.54bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.66% − 3%) | $167.90bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $60.95bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $61.13bn |
| Total present value | $122.07bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.74bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $70.04 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.42% | Growth 4.58% | Growth 9.58% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.66% | $59.99 | $80.75 | — |
| 10.66% | $52.47 | $70.04 | — |
| 11.66% | $46.67 | $61.81 | $81.80 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.44 | 11.61% | $62.21 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $85.30 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.23 | 10.66% | $70.04 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $70.04 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $70.04
Base value $70.04 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $94.46 and a 10% chance it is above $172.70 in a year; a 63% chance it is higher than today's $118.23, from 23.42% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.66% a year.
At $118.23 the price implies free cash flow growing 13.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $102.19 | $57.10 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $108.05 | $57.18 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $110.59 | $72.20 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $112.52 | $73.03 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $110.94 | $71.91 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $116.75 | $72.57 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $118.23 | $70.04 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Jun 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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