We publish no single base value for Dollar Tree. Our valuation methods put it between $94.79 and $100.81 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $100.81 | -28.6% | free cash flow $1.85bn, growth -7.85% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.01%; stress floor $94.85 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $94.79 | -32.9% | earnings per share $7.93 valued at 20.54× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.64 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.30) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.47 (37% own, 63% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.64 (0.67 × 0.47 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.01% |
Free cash flow grows -7.85% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.85bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -7.85% | $1.71bn | 0.9258 | $1.58bn |
| Year 2 | -7.85% | $1.57bn | 0.8572 | $1.35bn |
| Year 3 | -7.85% | $1.45bn | 0.7936 | $1.15bn |
| Year 4 | -7.85% | $1.34bn | 0.7348 | $981.96m |
| Year 5 | -7.85% | $1.23bn | 0.6803 | $837.77m |
| Year 6 | -6.04% | $1.16bn | 0.6298 | $728.78m |
| Year 7 | -4.23% | $1.11bn | 0.5831 | $646.17m |
| Year 8 | -2.42% | $1.08bn | 0.5399 | $583.74m |
| Year 9 | -0.62% | $1.07bn | 0.4998 | $537.12m |
| Year 10 | 1.19% | $1.09bn | 0.4628 | $503.21m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.01% − 3%) | $22.36bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $10.35bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.90bn |
| Total present value | $19.25bn |
| Shares outstanding | 190.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $100.81 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -12.85% | Growth -7.85% | Growth -2.85% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.01% | $88.26 | $122.90 | $170.73 |
| 8.01% | $73.46 | $100.81 | $138.32 |
| 9.01% | $63.47 | $85.98 | $116.62 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.64 | 8.01% | $100.81 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $130.54 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.64 | 8.01% | $100.81 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.93 |
| Year 1 | -7.85% | $7.30 |
| Year 2 | -4.59% | $6.97 |
| Year 3 | -2.32% | $6.81 |
| Year 4 | -0.72% | $6.76 |
| Year 5 | 0.39% | $6.78 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.78 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 20.54× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $139.34 |
| Discounted at 8.01% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4700 | $94.79 |
We publish no single base value for Dollar Tree. Our valuation methods put it between $94.79 and $100.81 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $77.81 and a 10% chance it is above $245.06 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $141.27, from 44.53% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.01% a year.
At $141.27 the price implies free cash flow growing -2.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -7.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $112.16 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $118.64 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $124.18 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $125.31 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $133.87 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $131.14 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $141.27 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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