We publish no single base value for Dover Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $169.50 and $177.11 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $177.11 | -15.4% | free cash flow $1.19bn, growth 7.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.68%; stress floor $108.95 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $169.50 | -19.1% | earnings per share $10.69 valued at 19.27× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.10 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 0.98 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.02 (31% own, 69% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.01 (0.67 × 1.02 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.68% |
Free cash flow grows 7.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.19bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 7.50% | $1.28bn | 0.9118 | $1.16bn |
| Year 2 | 7.50% | $1.37bn | 0.8314 | $1.14bn |
| Year 3 | 7.50% | $1.47bn | 0.7580 | $1.12bn |
| Year 4 | 7.50% | $1.58bn | 0.6911 | $1.10bn |
| Year 5 | 7.50% | $1.70bn | 0.6302 | $1.07bn |
| Year 6 | 6.75% | $1.82bn | 0.5746 | $1.04bn |
| Year 7 | 6.00% | $1.93bn | 0.5239 | $1.01bn |
| Year 8 | 5.25% | $2.03bn | 0.4777 | $969.12m |
| Year 9 | 4.50% | $2.12bn | 0.4355 | $923.39m |
| Year 10 | 3.75% | $2.20bn | 0.3971 | $873.50m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.68% − 3%) | $33.94bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $13.48bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.41bn |
| Total present value | $23.89bn |
| Shares outstanding | 134.88m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $177.11 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 2.5% | Growth 7.5% | Growth 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.68% | $154.87 | — | $283.01 |
| 9.68% | $131.78 | $177.11 | $237.23 |
| 10.68% | $114.70 | $152.98 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.10 | 10.08% | $166.51 |
| Peer beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $180.94 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.01 | 9.68% | $177.11 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.69 |
| Year 1 | 7.50% | $11.49 |
| Year 2 | 6.15% | $12.19 |
| Year 3 | 5.21% | $12.83 |
| Year 4 | 4.54% | $13.41 |
| Year 5 | 4.08% | $13.96 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $13.96 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.27× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $268.97 |
| Discounted at 9.68% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5869 | $169.50 |
We publish no single base value for Dover Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $169.50 and $177.11 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $165.99 and a 10% chance it is above $302.62 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $209.47, from 23.31% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.68% a year.
At $209.47 the price implies free cash flow growing 10.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 7.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $189.69 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $188.83 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $195.80 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $199.20 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $207.74 | $171.02 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $203.85 | $171.55 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $209.47 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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