We publish no single base value for Dow Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $27.08 and $37.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $27.08 | -18.3% | free cash flow $1.00bn, growth 4.16% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.64%; stress floor $17.66 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $37.18 | +12.2% | earnings per share $2.59 valued at 18.25× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing states no operating profit for 'Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure'. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.41 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 0.90 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.67 (47% own, 53% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.78 (0.67 × 0.67 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.64% |
Free cash flow grows 4.16% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.00bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.16% | $1.05bn | 0.9205 | $963.56m |
| Year 2 | 4.16% | $1.09bn | 0.8473 | $923.82m |
| Year 3 | 4.16% | $1.14bn | 0.7799 | $885.73m |
| Year 4 | 4.16% | $1.18bn | 0.7179 | $849.20m |
| Year 5 | 4.16% | $1.23bn | 0.6608 | $814.18m |
| Year 6 | 3.97% | $1.28bn | 0.6082 | $779.16m |
| Year 7 | 3.77% | $1.33bn | 0.5599 | $744.26m |
| Year 8 | 3.58% | $1.38bn | 0.5153 | $709.59m |
| Year 9 | 3.39% | $1.42bn | 0.4743 | $675.28m |
| Year 10 | 3.19% | $1.47bn | 0.4366 | $641.42m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.64% − 3%) | $26.83bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.71bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.99bn |
| Total present value | $19.70bn |
| Shares outstanding | 727.40m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $27.08 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.84% | Growth 4.16% | Growth 9.16% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.64% | $24.05 | $32.99 | — |
| 8.64% | $19.94 | $27.08 | — |
| 9.64% | $17.05 | $22.96 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.41 | 6.97% | $38.56 |
| Peer beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $24.69 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.78 | 8.64% | $27.08 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.59 |
| Year 1 | 4.16% | $2.69 |
| Year 2 | 3.75% | $2.79 |
| Year 3 | 3.49% | $2.89 |
| Year 4 | 3.32% | $2.99 |
| Year 5 | 3.21% | $3.08 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.08 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.25× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $56.27 |
| Discounted at 8.64% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5134 | $37.18 |
We publish no single base value for Dow Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $27.08 and $37.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $22.94 and a 10% chance it is above $51.36 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $33.15, from 31.28% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.64% a year.
At $33.15 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $27.97 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $28.42 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $29.93 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $32.61 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $34.70 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $31.40 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $33.15 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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