On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Domino's is $327.73 a share, 1.7% below its $333.23 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $327.73 | -1.7% | free cash flow $635.69m, growth 3.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.18%; stress floor $224.47 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 25.3x is 1.6x the 16.1x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.95 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 0.65 (median of 5 S&P 500 Restaurants companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.85 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.90 (0.67 × 0.85 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.18% |
Free cash flow grows 3.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $635.69m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.40% | $657.30m | 0.9159 | $602.03m |
| Year 2 | 3.40% | $679.65m | 0.8389 | $570.16m |
| Year 3 | 3.40% | $702.76m | 0.7684 | $539.98m |
| Year 4 | 3.40% | $726.65m | 0.7038 | $511.39m |
| Year 5 | 3.40% | $751.36m | 0.6446 | $484.32m |
| Year 6 | 3.33% | $776.40m | 0.5904 | $458.38m |
| Year 7 | 3.27% | $801.76m | 0.5408 | $433.56m |
| Year 8 | 3.20% | $827.42m | 0.4953 | $409.81m |
| Year 9 | 3.13% | $853.35m | 0.4536 | $387.11m |
| Year 10 | 3.07% | $879.52m | 0.4155 | $365.44m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.18% − 3%) | $14.66bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $6.09bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.76bn |
| Total present value | $10.85bn |
| Shares outstanding | 33.11m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $327.73 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.6% | Growth 3.4% | Growth 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.18% | $286.63 | $391.27 | — |
| 9.18% | $242.34 | $327.73 | — |
| 10.18% | $210.30 | $281.90 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.95 | 9.40% | $316.17 |
| Peer beta | 0.65 | 8.05% | $400.99 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.90 | 9.18% | $327.73 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $327.73 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $327.73
Base value $327.73 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $227.27 and a 10% chance it is above $525.28 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $333.23, from 32.52% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.18% a year.
At $333.23 the price implies free cash flow growing 3.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $297.62 | $293.15 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $309.36 | $295.06 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $308.64 | $335.08 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $313.61 | $339.82 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $313.71 | $338.51 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $334.28 | $342.36 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $333.23 | $327.73 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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