We publish no single base value for Darden Restaurants. Our valuation methods put it between $165.77 and $220.66 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $220.66 | -3.2% | free cash flow $1.24bn, growth 5.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.73%; stress floor $140.28 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $165.77 | -27.3% | earnings per share $11.27 valued at 18.13× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.65 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 0.95 (median of 5 S&P 500 Restaurants companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.70 (83% own, 17% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.80 (0.67 × 0.70 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.73% |
Free cash flow grows 5.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.24bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.10% | $1.30bn | 0.9197 | $1.19bn |
| Year 2 | 5.10% | $1.37bn | 0.8459 | $1.15bn |
| Year 3 | 5.10% | $1.43bn | 0.7780 | $1.12bn |
| Year 4 | 5.10% | $1.51bn | 0.7155 | $1.08bn |
| Year 5 | 5.10% | $1.59bn | 0.6580 | $1.04bn |
| Year 6 | 4.75% | $1.66bn | 0.6052 | $1.00bn |
| Year 7 | 4.40% | $1.73bn | 0.5566 | $964.81m |
| Year 8 | 4.05% | $1.80bn | 0.5119 | $923.28m |
| Year 9 | 3.70% | $1.87bn | 0.4708 | $880.57m |
| Year 10 | 3.35% | $1.93bn | 0.4330 | $837.00m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.73% − 3%) | $34.75bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $15.05bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.20bn |
| Total present value | $25.24bn |
| Shares outstanding | 114.40m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $220.66 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.1% | Growth 5.1% | Growth 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.73% | $195.97 | $268.30 | $365.38 |
| 8.73% | $162.66 | $220.66 | — |
| 9.73% | $139.21 | $187.22 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.65 | 8.05% | $250.74 |
| Peer beta | 0.95 | 9.40% | $196.94 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.80 | 8.73% | $220.66 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.27 |
| Year 1 | 5.10% | $11.84 |
| Year 2 | 4.57% | $12.38 |
| Year 3 | 4.18% | $12.90 |
| Year 4 | 3.89% | $13.40 |
| Year 5 | 3.66% | $13.89 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $13.89 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.13× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $251.92 |
| Discounted at 8.73% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5197 | $165.77 |
We publish no single base value for Darden Restaurants. Our valuation methods put it between $165.77 and $220.66 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $164.79 and a 10% chance it is above $344.20 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $227.90, from 28.59% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.73% a year.
At $227.90 the price implies free cash flow growing 5.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $200.33 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $197.66 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $216.35 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $212.40 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $220.17 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $226.35 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $227.90 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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