We publish no single base value for DaVita. Our valuation methods put it between $156.78 and $365.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $365.08 | +109.7% | free cash flow $1.29bn, growth 4.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.13%; stress floor $240.28 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $156.78 | -9.9% | earnings per share $14.70 valued at 13.7× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.87 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.33) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.83 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.89 (0.67 × 0.83 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.13% |
Free cash flow grows 4.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.29bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.60% | $1.35bn | 0.9163 | $1.24bn |
| Year 2 | 4.60% | $1.42bn | 0.8396 | $1.19bn |
| Year 3 | 4.60% | $1.48bn | 0.7693 | $1.14bn |
| Year 4 | 4.60% | $1.55bn | 0.7049 | $1.09bn |
| Year 5 | 4.60% | $1.62bn | 0.6459 | $1.05bn |
| Year 6 | 4.33% | $1.69bn | 0.5919 | $1.00bn |
| Year 7 | 4.07% | $1.76bn | 0.5423 | $953.85m |
| Year 8 | 3.80% | $1.83bn | 0.4969 | $907.22m |
| Year 9 | 3.53% | $1.89bn | 0.4553 | $860.65m |
| Year 10 | 3.27% | $1.95bn | 0.4172 | $814.38m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.13% − 3%) | $32.77bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $13.67bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.24bn |
| Total present value | $23.91bn |
| Shares outstanding | 65.50m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $365.08 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.4% | Growth 4.6% | Growth 9.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.13% | $320.55 | $437.38 | — |
| 9.13% | $270.00 | $365.08 | — |
| 10.13% | $233.55 | $313.10 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.87 | 9.04% | $370.61 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $400.91 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.89 | 9.13% | $365.08 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $14.70 |
| Year 1 | 4.60% | $15.37 |
| Year 2 | 4.04% | $15.99 |
| Year 3 | 3.68% | $16.58 |
| Year 4 | 3.44% | $17.15 |
| Year 5 | 3.29% | $17.72 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $17.72 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.7× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $242.72 |
| Discounted at 9.13% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5482 | $156.78 |
We publish no single base value for DaVita. Our valuation methods put it between $156.78 and $365.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $109.10 and a 10% chance it is above $287.57 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $174.07, from 37.62% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.13% a year.
At $174.07 the price implies free cash flow growing -7.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $178.69 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $179.25 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $187.31 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $183.64 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $187.50 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $191.35 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $174.07 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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