We publish no single base value for Devon Energy. Our valuation methods put it between $77.67 and $148.90 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $148.90 | +222.1% | free cash flow $1.88bn, growth 27.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.79%; stress floor $46.12 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $77.67 | +68.0% | earnings per share $5.63 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.4×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.45 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.31) |
| Peer beta | 0.35 (median of 8 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.39 (35% own, 65% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.59 (0.67 × 0.39 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.79% |
Free cash flow grows 27.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.88bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 27.10% | $2.39bn | 0.9278 | $2.21bn |
| Year 2 | 27.10% | $3.03bn | 0.8608 | $2.61bn |
| Year 3 | 27.10% | $3.86bn | 0.7986 | $3.08bn |
| Year 4 | 27.10% | $4.90bn | 0.7409 | $3.63bn |
| Year 5 | 27.10% | $6.23bn | 0.6874 | $4.28bn |
| Year 6 | 23.08% | $7.67bn | 0.6377 | $4.89bn |
| Year 7 | 19.07% | $9.13bn | 0.5917 | $5.40bn |
| Year 8 | 15.05% | $10.50bn | 0.5490 | $5.77bn |
| Year 9 | 11.03% | $11.66bn | 0.5093 | $5.94bn |
| Year 10 | 7.02% | $12.48bn | 0.4725 | $5.90bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.79% − 3%) | $268.63bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $126.93bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $43.71bn |
| Total present value | $170.64bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.15bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $148.90 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 22.1% | Growth 27.1% | Growth 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.79% | $145.21 | $194.19 | $257.71 |
| 7.79% | $111.86 | $148.90 | $196.84 |
| 8.79% | $90.18 | $119.51 | $157.37 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.45 | 7.15% | $174.85 |
| Peer beta | 0.35 | 6.71% | $198.89 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.59 | 7.79% | $148.90 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.63 |
| Year 1 | 27.10% | $7.15 |
| Year 2 | 18.66% | $8.49 |
| Year 3 | 13.18% | $9.61 |
| Year 4 | 9.62% | $10.53 |
| Year 5 | 7.30% | $11.30 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $11.30 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.4×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $112.99 |
| Discounted at 7.79% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4548 | $77.67 |
We publish no single base value for Devon Energy. Our valuation methods put it between $77.67 and $148.90 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $28.99 and a 10% chance it is above $74.78 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $46.23, from 36.78% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.79% a year.
At $46.23 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 27.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $47.65 | $47.71 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $48.26 | $46.50 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $50.73 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $51.39 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $52.15 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $42.21 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $46.23 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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