We publish no single base value for eBay Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $76.82 and $137.49 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $137.49 | +14.4% | free cash flow $2.41bn, growth 13.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.39%; stress floor $72.21 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $76.82 | -36.1% | earnings per share $6.26 valued at 12.78× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.29 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.26 (82% own, 18% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.17 (0.67 × 1.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.39% |
Free cash flow grows 13.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.41bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.70% | $2.74bn | 0.9058 | $2.49bn |
| Year 2 | 13.70% | $3.12bn | 0.8205 | $2.56bn |
| Year 3 | 13.70% | $3.55bn | 0.7433 | $2.64bn |
| Year 4 | 13.70% | $4.03bn | 0.6733 | $2.72bn |
| Year 5 | 13.70% | $4.59bn | 0.6099 | $2.80bn |
| Year 6 | 11.92% | $5.13bn | 0.5525 | $2.84bn |
| Year 7 | 10.13% | $5.65bn | 0.5004 | $2.83bn |
| Year 8 | 8.35% | $6.12bn | 0.4533 | $2.78bn |
| Year 9 | 6.57% | $6.53bn | 0.4106 | $2.68bn |
| Year 10 | 4.78% | $6.84bn | 0.3720 | $2.54bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.39% − 3%) | $95.24bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $35.43bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $26.86bn |
| Total present value | $62.28bn |
| Shares outstanding | 453.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $137.49 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.7% | Growth 13.7% | Growth 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.39% | — | $161.42 | $215.35 |
| 10.39% | — | $137.49 | $182.39 |
| 11.39% | $90.18 | $119.36 | $157.47 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.29 | 10.93% | $127.12 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $145.30 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.17 | 10.39% | $137.49 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.26 |
| Year 1 | 13.70% | $7.12 |
| Year 2 | 11.02% | $7.90 |
| Year 3 | 9.02% | $8.62 |
| Year 4 | 7.51% | $9.26 |
| Year 5 | 6.39% | $9.86 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.86 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.78× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $125.96 |
| Discounted at 10.39% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6396 | $76.82 |
We publish no single base value for eBay Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $76.82 and $137.49 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $87.90 and a 10% chance it is above $185.06 in a year; a 58% chance it is higher than today's $120.14, from 28.9% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.39% a year.
At $120.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $106.40 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $112.19 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $120.28 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $121.41 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $121.64 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $121.96 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $120.14 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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