We publish no single base value for Everest Group. Our valuation methods put it between $235.69 and $264.32 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $235.69 | -44.2% | free cash flow $1.21bn, growth -14.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $272.57 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $264.32 | -37.4% | earnings per share $54.14 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.9×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.23 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 74 S&P 500 Financials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.32 (87% own, 13% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.32 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows -14.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.21bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -14.40% | $1.03bn | 0.9293 | $960.97m |
| Year 2 | -14.40% | $885.15m | 0.8636 | $764.45m |
| Year 3 | -14.40% | $757.68m | 0.8026 | $608.12m |
| Year 4 | -14.40% | $648.58m | 0.7459 | $483.76m |
| Year 5 | -14.40% | $555.18m | 0.6932 | $384.83m |
| Year 6 | -11.50% | $491.34m | 0.6442 | $316.51m |
| Year 7 | -8.60% | $449.08m | 0.5986 | $268.84m |
| Year 8 | -5.70% | $423.48m | 0.5563 | $235.60m |
| Year 9 | -2.80% | $411.63m | 0.5170 | $212.82m |
| Year 10 | 0.10% | $412.04m | 0.4805 | $197.98m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $9.22bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $4.43bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.43bn |
| Total present value | $8.86bn |
| Shares outstanding | 37.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $235.69 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -19.4% | Growth -14.4% | Growth -9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | $205.13 | $287.61 | $403.30 |
| 7.61% | $171.23 | $235.69 | $325.26 |
| 8.61% | $149.03 | $201.88 | $274.69 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.23 | 6.17% | $320.60 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $184.17 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $235.69 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $54.14 |
| Year 1 | -14.40% | $46.35 |
| Year 2 | -9.18% | $42.09 |
| Year 3 | -5.53% | $39.77 |
| Year 4 | -2.97% | $38.59 |
| Year 5 | -1.18% | $38.13 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $38.13 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.9×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $381.32 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $264.32 |
We publish no single base value for Everest Group. Our valuation methods put it between $235.69 and $264.32 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $336.91 and a 10% chance it is above $586.38 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $422.33, from 21.51% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $422.33 the price implies free cash flow growing -5.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -14.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $368.27 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $368.37 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $389.10 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $398.60 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $410.97 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $411.11 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $422.33 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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