We publish no single base value for Estée Lauder Companies (The). Our valuation methods put it between $91.18 and $116.89 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $91.18 | -17.5% | free cash flow $1.52bn, growth 5.79% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.55%; stress floor $56.19 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $116.89 | +5.8% | earnings per share $3.43 valued at 40.86× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.23 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.32) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.65 (33% own, 67% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.76 (0.67 × 0.65 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.55% |
Free cash flow grows 5.79% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.52bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.79% | $1.60bn | 0.9212 | $1.48bn |
| Year 2 | 5.79% | $1.70bn | 0.8487 | $1.44bn |
| Year 3 | 5.79% | $1.80bn | 0.7818 | $1.40bn |
| Year 4 | 5.79% | $1.90bn | 0.7202 | $1.37bn |
| Year 5 | 5.79% | $2.01bn | 0.6635 | $1.33bn |
| Year 6 | 5.33% | $2.12bn | 0.6113 | $1.29bn |
| Year 7 | 4.86% | $2.22bn | 0.5631 | $1.25bn |
| Year 8 | 4.39% | $2.32bn | 0.5188 | $1.20bn |
| Year 9 | 3.93% | $2.41bn | 0.4779 | $1.15bn |
| Year 10 | 3.47% | $2.49bn | 0.4403 | $1.10bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.55% − 3%) | $46.25bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $20.36bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.02bn |
| Total present value | $33.38bn |
| Shares outstanding | 366.10m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $91.18 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.79% | Growth 5.79% | Growth 10.79% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.55% | $81.55 | — | $152.30 |
| 8.55% | $67.14 | $91.18 | $123.30 |
| 9.55% | $57.11 | $76.91 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.23 | 10.66% | $65.40 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.76 | 8.55% | $91.18 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.43 |
| Year 1 | 5.79% | $3.63 |
| Year 2 | 5.09% | $3.81 |
| Year 3 | 4.57% | $3.98 |
| Year 4 | 4.18% | $4.15 |
| Year 5 | 3.88% | $4.31 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.31 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 40.86× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $176.17 |
| Discounted at 8.55% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5071 | $116.89 |
We publish no single base value for Estée Lauder Companies (The). Our valuation methods put it between $91.18 and $116.89 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $58.75 and a 10% chance it is above $196.47 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $110.51, from 46.86% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.55% a year.
At $110.51 the price implies free cash flow growing 9.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $91.97 | $48.14 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $98.05 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $104.54 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $108.67 | $77.43 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $109.23 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $110.06 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $110.51 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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