We publish no single base value for Elevance Health. Our valuation methods put it between $300.93 and $537.75 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $537.75 | +25.1% | free cash flow $6.51bn, growth 1.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.59%; plus net cash $38.14 a share; stress floor $393.51 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $300.93 | -30.0% | earnings per share $29.14 valued at 14.05× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.63 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.66 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.77 (0.67 × 0.66 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.59% |
Free cash flow grows 1.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.51bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.40% | $6.61bn | 0.9209 | $6.08bn |
| Year 2 | 1.40% | $6.70bn | 0.8480 | $5.68bn |
| Year 3 | 1.40% | $6.79bn | 0.7809 | $5.30bn |
| Year 4 | 1.40% | $6.89bn | 0.7191 | $4.95bn |
| Year 5 | 1.40% | $6.98bn | 0.6621 | $4.62bn |
| Year 6 | 1.67% | $7.10bn | 0.6097 | $4.33bn |
| Year 7 | 1.93% | $7.24bn | 0.5615 | $4.06bn |
| Year 8 | 2.20% | $7.40bn | 0.5170 | $3.82bn |
| Year 9 | 2.47% | $7.58bn | 0.4761 | $3.61bn |
| Year 10 | 2.73% | $7.79bn | 0.4384 | $3.41bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.59% − 3%) | $143.32bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $62.84bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $45.88bn |
| Total present value | $108.71bn |
| Shares outstanding | 217.60m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $499.61 |
| Plus net cash per share | $38.14 |
| Value per share | $537.75 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.6% | Growth 1.4% | Growth 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.59% | $479.16 | $644.67 | — |
| 8.59% | $405.20 | $537.75 | $716.09 |
| 9.59% | $353.46 | $463.19 | $610.10 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.63 | 7.96% | $600.10 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $537.75 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.77 | 8.59% | $537.75 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $29.14 |
| Year 1 | 1.40% | $29.55 |
| Year 2 | 1.88% | $30.10 |
| Year 3 | 2.22% | $30.77 |
| Year 4 | 2.45% | $31.52 |
| Year 5 | 2.62% | $32.35 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $32.35 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.05× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $454.48 |
| Discounted at 8.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5103 | $300.93 |
We publish no single base value for Elevance Health. Our valuation methods put it between $300.93 and $537.75 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $322.46 and a 10% chance it is above $632.81 in a year; a 58% chance it is higher than today's $429.90, from 26.17% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.59% a year.
At $429.90 the price implies free cash flow growing -2.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $386.43 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $412.70 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $428.26 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $439.95 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $420.07 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $425.62 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $429.90 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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