We publish no single base value for Emcor. Our valuation methods put it between $806.93 and $1,501.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,501.18 | +126.5% | free cash flow $1.48bn, growth 22.15% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.95%; plus net cash $4.84 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $806.93 | +21.8% | earnings per share $34.91 valued at 19.71× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.16 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.11 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.07 (0.67 × 1.11 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.95% |
Free cash flow grows 22.15% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.48bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 22.15% | $1.81bn | 0.9095 | $1.65bn |
| Year 2 | 22.15% | $2.21bn | 0.8273 | $1.83bn |
| Year 3 | 22.15% | $2.70bn | 0.7524 | $2.03bn |
| Year 4 | 22.15% | $3.30bn | 0.6844 | $2.26bn |
| Year 5 | 22.15% | $4.03bn | 0.6225 | $2.51bn |
| Year 6 | 18.96% | $4.79bn | 0.5662 | $2.71bn |
| Year 7 | 15.77% | $5.55bn | 0.5150 | $2.86bn |
| Year 8 | 12.57% | $6.25bn | 0.4684 | $2.93bn |
| Year 9 | 9.38% | $6.83bn | 0.4260 | $2.91bn |
| Year 10 | 6.19% | $7.26bn | 0.3875 | $2.81bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.95% − 3%) | $107.64bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $41.71bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $24.50bn |
| Total present value | $66.21bn |
| Shares outstanding | 44.25m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $1,496.34 |
| Plus net cash per share | $4.84 |
| Value per share | $1,501.18 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 17.15% | Growth 22.15% | Growth 27.15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.95% | $1,349.67 | $1,796.49 | $2,377.30 |
| 9.95% | $1,133.80 | $1,501.18 | $1,977.49 |
| 10.95% | $973.36 | $1,282.08 | $1,681.32 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.16 | 10.35% | $1,405.03 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $1,571.96 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.07 | 9.95% | $1,501.18 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $34.91 |
| Year 1 | 22.15% | $42.64 |
| Year 2 | 16.40% | $49.64 |
| Year 3 | 12.38% | $55.79 |
| Year 4 | 9.57% | $61.13 |
| Year 5 | 7.60% | $65.77 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $65.77 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.71× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,296.32 |
| Discounted at 9.95% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6065 | $806.93 |
We publish no single base value for Emcor. Our valuation methods put it between $806.93 and $1,501.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $361.79 and a 10% chance it is above $1,187.95 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $662.77, from 46.15% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.95% a year.
At $662.77 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 22.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $786.61 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $789.45 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $721.66 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $647.66 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $679.55 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $608.45 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $662.77 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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