We publish no single base value for Emerson Electric. Our valuation methods put it between $101.59 and $114.31 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $101.59 | -39.1% | free cash flow $3.54bn, growth 5.37% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.35%; stress floor $68.38 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $114.31 | -31.5% | earnings per share $7.32 valued at 20.57× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.23 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 1.51 (median of 5 S&P 500 Electrical Components & Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.24 (94% own, 6% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.16 (0.67 × 1.24 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.35% |
Free cash flow grows 5.37% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.54bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.37% | $3.72bn | 0.9062 | $3.38bn |
| Year 2 | 5.37% | $3.92bn | 0.8212 | $3.22bn |
| Year 3 | 5.37% | $4.14bn | 0.7442 | $3.08bn |
| Year 4 | 5.37% | $4.36bn | 0.6744 | $2.94bn |
| Year 5 | 5.37% | $4.59bn | 0.6111 | $2.81bn |
| Year 6 | 4.97% | $4.82bn | 0.5538 | $2.67bn |
| Year 7 | 4.58% | $5.04bn | 0.5019 | $2.53bn |
| Year 8 | 4.19% | $5.25bn | 0.4548 | $2.39bn |
| Year 9 | 3.79% | $5.45bn | 0.4121 | $2.25bn |
| Year 10 | 3.39% | $5.64bn | 0.3735 | $2.10bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.35% − 3%) | $78.98bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $29.50bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $27.36bn |
| Total present value | $56.86bn |
| Shares outstanding | 559.70m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $101.59 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.37% | Growth 5.37% | Growth 10.37% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.35% | $87.49 | $118.03 | — |
| 10.35% | $75.93 | $101.59 | — |
| 11.35% | $67.12 | $89.10 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.23 | 10.66% | $97.30 |
| Peer beta | 1.51 | 11.93% | $83.19 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.16 | 10.35% | $101.59 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.32 |
| Year 1 | 5.37% | $7.71 |
| Year 2 | 4.78% | $8.08 |
| Year 3 | 4.33% | $8.43 |
| Year 4 | 4.00% | $8.76 |
| Year 5 | 3.75% | $9.09 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.09 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 20.57× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $187.04 |
| Discounted at 10.35% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6363 | $114.31 |
We publish no single base value for Emerson Electric. Our valuation methods put it between $101.59 and $114.31 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $127.48 and a 10% chance it is above $249.98 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $166.92, from 26.14% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.35% a year.
At $166.92 the price implies free cash flow growing 14.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $161.61 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $161.83 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $161.47 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $161.59 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $164.94 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $162.35 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $166.92 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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