We publish no single base value for EQT Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $41.46 and $63.94 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $63.94 | +22.1% | free cash flow $3.81bn, growth -8.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.83%; stress floor $60.16 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $41.46 | -20.8% | earnings per share $3.80 valued at 19.33× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.68 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.34) |
| Peer beta | 0.35 (median of 8 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.41 (18% own, 82% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.60 (0.67 × 0.41 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.83% |
Free cash flow grows -8.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.81bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -8.10% | $3.50bn | 0.9274 | $3.25bn |
| Year 2 | -8.10% | $3.22bn | 0.8600 | $2.77bn |
| Year 3 | -8.10% | $2.96bn | 0.7976 | $2.36bn |
| Year 4 | -8.10% | $2.72bn | 0.7397 | $2.01bn |
| Year 5 | -8.10% | $2.50bn | 0.6860 | $1.71bn |
| Year 6 | -6.25% | $2.34bn | 0.6362 | $1.49bn |
| Year 7 | -4.40% | $2.24bn | 0.5900 | $1.32bn |
| Year 8 | -2.55% | $2.18bn | 0.5471 | $1.19bn |
| Year 9 | -0.70% | $2.17bn | 0.5074 | $1.10bn |
| Year 10 | 1.15% | $2.19bn | 0.4705 | $1.03bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.83% − 3%) | $46.74bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $21.99bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $18.24bn |
| Total present value | $40.23bn |
| Shares outstanding | 629.17m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $63.94 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -13.1% | Growth -8.1% | Growth -3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.83% | $56.28 | $78.60 | $109.47 |
| 7.83% | $46.47 | $63.94 | $87.93 |
| 8.83% | $39.96 | $54.25 | $73.73 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.68 | 8.19% | $60.03 |
| Peer beta | 0.35 | 6.71% | $80.98 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.60 | 7.83% | $63.94 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.80 |
| Year 1 | -8.10% | $3.49 |
| Year 2 | -5.32% | $3.30 |
| Year 3 | -3.24% | $3.20 |
| Year 4 | -1.68% | $3.14 |
| Year 5 | -0.51% | $3.13 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.13 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.33× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $60.45 |
| Discounted at 7.83% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4578 | $41.46 |
We publish no single base value for EQT Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $41.46 and $63.94 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $37.88 and a 10% chance it is above $77.90 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $52.36, from 27.98% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.83% a year.
At $52.36 the price implies free cash flow growing -11.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -8.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $50.17 | $87.01 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $52.83 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $54.30 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $55.63 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $55.38 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $49.40 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $52.36 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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