We publish no single base value for Expeditors International. Our valuation methods put it between $188.28 and $271.43 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $271.43 | +38.7% | free cash flow $927.87m, growth 18.64% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.81%; plus net cash $3.97 a share; stress floor $122.66 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $188.28 | -3.8% | earnings per share $8.65 valued at 20.07× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.08 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.06 (78% own, 22% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.04 (0.67 × 1.06 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.81% |
Free cash flow grows 18.64% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $927.87m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 18.64% | $1.10bn | 0.9107 | $1.00bn |
| Year 2 | 18.64% | $1.31bn | 0.8293 | $1.08bn |
| Year 3 | 18.64% | $1.55bn | 0.7552 | $1.17bn |
| Year 4 | 18.64% | $1.84bn | 0.6878 | $1.26bn |
| Year 5 | 18.64% | $2.18bn | 0.6263 | $1.37bn |
| Year 6 | 16.03% | $2.53bn | 0.5704 | $1.44bn |
| Year 7 | 13.43% | $2.87bn | 0.5194 | $1.49bn |
| Year 8 | 10.82% | $3.18bn | 0.4730 | $1.50bn |
| Year 9 | 8.21% | $3.44bn | 0.4307 | $1.48bn |
| Year 10 | 5.61% | $3.64bn | 0.3923 | $1.43bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.81% − 3%) | $54.98bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $21.57bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.23bn |
| Total present value | $34.80bn |
| Shares outstanding | 130.12m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $267.46 |
| Plus net cash per share | $3.97 |
| Value per share | $271.43 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 13.64% | Growth 18.64% | Growth 23.64% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.81% | $243.17 | $324.19 | $430.11 |
| 9.81% | $204.91 | $271.43 | $358.15 |
| 10.81% | $176.60 | $232.47 | $305.09 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.08 | 9.99% | $263.57 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $277.61 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.04 | 9.81% | $271.43 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.65 |
| Year 1 | 18.64% | $10.27 |
| Year 2 | 13.95% | $11.70 |
| Year 3 | 10.66% | $12.95 |
| Year 4 | 8.36% | $14.03 |
| Year 5 | 6.76% | $14.98 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $14.98 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 20.07× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $300.62 |
| Discounted at 9.81% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5966 | $188.28 |
We publish no single base value for Expeditors International. Our valuation methods put it between $188.28 and $271.43 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $157.99 and a 10% chance it is above $279.69 in a year; a 63% chance it is higher than today's $195.67, from 22.17% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.81% a year.
At $195.67 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 18.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $192.47 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $193.24 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $195.91 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $196.21 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $198.85 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $184.61 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $195.67 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on EXPD · Expeditors International company page · Call and put prices