On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Expedia Group is $283.26 a share, 8.5% above its $261.05 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | perpetuity refused: the 10.71% discount rate sits 1.19pt from the 11.9% the model would compound (floor 2pt) — growth and discounting cancel through the explicit window, so the answer is the terminal block and the house fade, not this company's cash flows. The target rests on the exit multiple alone |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $283.26 | +8.5% | earnings per share $21.19 valued at 14.85× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $21.19 |
| Year 1 | 11.90% | $23.71 |
| Year 2 | 9.68% | $26.00 |
| Year 3 | 8.01% | $28.08 |
| Year 4 | 6.75% | $29.98 |
| Year 5 | 5.82% | $31.72 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $31.72 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.85× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $471.11 |
| Discounted at 10.71% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6632 | $283.26 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $283.26 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $283.26
Base value $283.26 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $117.48 and a 10% chance it is above $513.05 in a year; a 46% chance it is higher than today's $261.05, from 57.22% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.71% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $265.00 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $274.22 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $288.95 | $283.35 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $289.01 | $284.55 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $285.93 | $284.64 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $259.24 | $286.98 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $261.05 | $283.26 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on EXPE · Expedia Group company page · Call and put prices