On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Ford Motor Company is $11.06 a share, 7.1% below its $11.90 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the cash flow statement books the movement in a lending book as operating cash flow, so this is the group's funding position rather than this business's free cash flow, and no DCF can be built on it |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $11.06 | -7.1% | earnings per share $1.89 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 6.0×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Ford Blue' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | the bank earns -23.18% on its tangible book against a growth rate of 3.00% — at or below the rate it is assumed to compound at, the multiple this method returns is negative, which is not a cheap bank but a method that does not apply |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.89 |
| Year 1 | -2.00% | $1.85 |
| Year 2 | -0.50% | $1.84 |
| Year 3 | 0.55% | $1.85 |
| Year 4 | 1.29% | $1.87 |
| Year 5 | 1.80% | $1.91 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.91 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 6.0×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $19.08 |
| Discounted at 11.52% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7249 | $11.06 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $11.06 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $11.06
Base value $11.06 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $8.57 and a 10% chance it is above $18.85 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $11.90, from 30.61% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.52% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $12.10 | $9.68 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $12.17 | $9.56 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $12.43 | $10.25 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $11.60 | $10.29 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $12.25 | $11.29 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $12.44 | $11.30 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $11.90 | $11.06 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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