We publish no single base value for Fastenal. Our valuation methods put it between $30.21 and $40.29 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $30.21 | -45.6% | free cash flow $1.05bn, growth 13.53% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.87%; stress floor $14.88 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $40.29 | -27.5% | earnings per share $1.27 valued at 31.75× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.66 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.74 (76% own, 24% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.83 (0.67 × 0.74 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.87% |
Free cash flow grows 13.53% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.05bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.53% | $1.20bn | 0.9186 | $1.10bn |
| Year 2 | 13.53% | $1.36bn | 0.8438 | $1.15bn |
| Year 3 | 13.53% | $1.54bn | 0.7751 | $1.19bn |
| Year 4 | 13.53% | $1.75bn | 0.7119 | $1.25bn |
| Year 5 | 13.53% | $1.99bn | 0.6540 | $1.30bn |
| Year 6 | 11.77% | $2.22bn | 0.6007 | $1.33bn |
| Year 7 | 10.02% | $2.44bn | 0.5518 | $1.35bn |
| Year 8 | 8.27% | $2.65bn | 0.5069 | $1.34bn |
| Year 9 | 6.51% | $2.82bn | 0.4656 | $1.31bn |
| Year 10 | 4.75% | $2.95bn | 0.4277 | $1.26bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.87% − 3%) | $51.83bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $22.17bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.58bn |
| Total present value | $34.75bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.15bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $30.21 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.53% | Growth 13.53% | Growth 18.53% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.87% | — | $37.01 | $49.83 |
| 8.87% | — | $30.21 | $40.44 |
| 9.87% | — | $25.42 | $33.83 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.66 | 8.10% | $35.17 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $26.02 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.83 | 8.87% | $30.21 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.27 |
| Year 1 | 13.53% | $1.44 |
| Year 2 | 10.37% | $1.59 |
| Year 3 | 8.16% | $1.72 |
| Year 4 | 6.61% | $1.84 |
| Year 5 | 5.53% | $1.94 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.94 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 31.75× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $61.60 |
| Discounted at 8.87% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5291 | $40.29 |
We publish no single base value for Fastenal. Our valuation methods put it between $30.21 and $40.29 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $46.15 and a 10% chance it is above $76.56 in a year; a 64% chance it is higher than today's $55.55, from 19.65% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.87% a year.
At $55.55 the price implies free cash flow growing 24.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $50.75 | $34.51 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $50.75 | $34.69 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $51.02 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $51.91 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $51.91 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $52.99 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $55.55 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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