On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Freeport-McMoRan is $19.00 a share, 68.6% below its $60.45 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $19.00 | -68.6% | free cash flow $1.98bn, growth 1.75% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; stress floor $14.08 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 25.1x is 1.8x the 14.2x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.39 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.10 (43% own, 57% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.10 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows 1.75% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.98bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.75% | $2.01bn | 0.9099 | $1.83bn |
| Year 2 | 1.75% | $2.05bn | 0.8280 | $1.69bn |
| Year 3 | 1.75% | $2.08bn | 0.7534 | $1.57bn |
| Year 4 | 1.75% | $2.12bn | 0.6855 | $1.45bn |
| Year 5 | 1.75% | $2.16bn | 0.6238 | $1.34bn |
| Year 6 | 1.96% | $2.20bn | 0.5676 | $1.25bn |
| Year 7 | 2.17% | $2.24bn | 0.5164 | $1.16bn |
| Year 8 | 2.38% | $2.30bn | 0.4699 | $1.08bn |
| Year 9 | 2.58% | $2.36bn | 0.4276 | $1.01bn |
| Year 10 | 2.79% | $2.42bn | 0.3891 | $942.85m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $36.17bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.07bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.32bn |
| Total present value | $27.40bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.44bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $19.00 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.25% | Growth 1.75% | Growth 6.75% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $16.34 | $22.17 | $30.00 |
| 9.90% | $14.14 | $19.00 | $25.50 |
| 10.90% | $12.48 | $16.63 | $22.15 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.39 | 11.38% | $15.68 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $21.49 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $19.00 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $19.00 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $19.00
Base value $19.00 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $33.79 and a 10% chance it is above $107.08 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $60.45, from 44.77% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $60.45 the price implies free cash flow growing 21.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $72.04 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $73.69 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $69.54 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $65.18 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $62.47 | $19.55 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $59.42 | $19.74 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $60.45 | $19.00 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on FCX · Freeport-McMoRan company page · Call and put prices