We publish no single base value for FedEx. Our valuation methods put it between $174.23 and $428.50 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $428.50 | +34.2% | free cash flow $5.48bn, growth 7.61% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.21%; stress floor $268.17 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $174.23 | -45.4% | earnings per share $19.50 valued at 11.09× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.28 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.19 (67% own, 33% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.13 (0.67 × 1.19 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.21% |
Free cash flow grows 7.61% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.48bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 7.61% | $5.90bn | 0.9073 | $5.35bn |
| Year 2 | 7.61% | $6.35bn | 0.8232 | $5.23bn |
| Year 3 | 7.61% | $6.83bn | 0.7469 | $5.10bn |
| Year 4 | 7.61% | $7.35bn | 0.6777 | $4.98bn |
| Year 5 | 7.61% | $7.91bn | 0.6149 | $4.87bn |
| Year 6 | 6.84% | $8.45bn | 0.5579 | $4.72bn |
| Year 7 | 6.07% | $8.97bn | 0.5062 | $4.54bn |
| Year 8 | 5.30% | $9.44bn | 0.4593 | $4.34bn |
| Year 9 | 4.54% | $9.87bn | 0.4167 | $4.11bn |
| Year 10 | 3.77% | $10.24bn | 0.3781 | $3.87bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.21% − 3%) | $146.25bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $55.29bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $47.12bn |
| Total present value | $102.41bn |
| Shares outstanding | 239.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $428.50 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 2.61% | Growth 7.61% | Growth 12.61% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.21% | $371.46 | — | $673.16 |
| 10.21% | $320.18 | $428.50 | $571.83 |
| 11.21% | $281.38 | $373.77 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.28 | 10.89% | $390.02 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $464.95 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.13 | 10.21% | $428.50 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.50 |
| Year 1 | 7.61% | $20.99 |
| Year 2 | 6.23% | $22.29 |
| Year 3 | 5.26% | $23.47 |
| Year 4 | 4.58% | $24.54 |
| Year 5 | 4.11% | $25.55 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $25.55 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.09× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $283.34 |
| Discounted at 10.21% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6263 | $174.23 |
We publish no single base value for FedEx. Our valuation methods put it between $174.23 and $428.50 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $247.56 and a 10% chance it is above $472.38 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $319.30, from 25.08% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.21% a year.
At $319.30 the price implies free cash flow growing 2.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 7.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $290.36 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $291.71 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $293.55 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $298.72 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $313.28 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $308.14 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $319.30 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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