We publish no single base value for Ferguson Enterprises. Our valuation methods put it between $140.27 and $175.63 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $140.27 | -45.0% | free cash flow $1.60bn, growth 5.09% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.86%; stress floor $93.59 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $175.63 | -31.1% | earnings per share $11.53 valued at 19.88× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.11 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.08 (68% own, 32% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.05 (0.67 × 1.08 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.86% |
Free cash flow grows 5.09% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.60bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.09% | $1.68bn | 0.9103 | $1.53bn |
| Year 2 | 5.09% | $1.77bn | 0.8286 | $1.46bn |
| Year 3 | 5.09% | $1.86bn | 0.7543 | $1.40bn |
| Year 4 | 5.09% | $1.95bn | 0.6866 | $1.34bn |
| Year 5 | 5.09% | $2.05bn | 0.6250 | $1.28bn |
| Year 6 | 4.74% | $2.15bn | 0.5690 | $1.22bn |
| Year 7 | 4.39% | $2.24bn | 0.5179 | $1.16bn |
| Year 8 | 4.04% | $2.33bn | 0.4715 | $1.10bn |
| Year 9 | 3.70% | $2.42bn | 0.4292 | $1.04bn |
| Year 10 | 3.35% | $2.50bn | 0.3907 | $976.98m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.86% − 3%) | $37.58bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.68bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.52bn |
| Total present value | $27.20bn |
| Shares outstanding | 193.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $140.27 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.09% | Growth 5.09% | Growth 10.09% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.86% | $121.61 | $164.79 | — |
| 9.86% | $104.40 | $140.27 | — |
| 10.86% | $91.55 | $122.01 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.11 | 10.12% | $134.83 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $144.14 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.05 | 9.86% | $140.27 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.53 |
| Year 1 | 5.09% | $12.12 |
| Year 2 | 4.46% | $12.66 |
| Year 3 | 4.02% | $13.17 |
| Year 4 | 3.72% | $13.66 |
| Year 5 | 3.50% | $14.13 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $14.13 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.88× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $280.99 |
| Discounted at 9.86% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5999 | $175.63 |
We publish no single base value for Ferguson Enterprises. Our valuation methods put it between $140.27 and $175.63 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $171.10 and a 10% chance it is above $409.87 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $254.89, from 33.91% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.86% a year.
At $254.89 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $223.33 | $203.81 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $220.04 | $203.81 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $231.61 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $226.86 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $238.68 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $233.70 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $254.89 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Oct 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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