On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Fair Isaac is $2,672.44 a share, 272.5% above its $717.38 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $2,672.44 | +272.5% | free cash flow $1.06bn, growth 27.32% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.48%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 43.0x is 2.7x the 16.0x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.36 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.35) |
| Peer beta | 1.21 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.28 (47% own, 53% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.19 (0.67 × 1.28 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.48% |
Free cash flow grows 27.32% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.06bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 27.32% | $1.35bn | 0.9051 | $1.22bn |
| Year 2 | 27.32% | $1.72bn | 0.8192 | $1.41bn |
| Year 3 | 27.32% | $2.19bn | 0.7415 | $1.62bn |
| Year 4 | 27.32% | $2.79bn | 0.6711 | $1.87bn |
| Year 5 | 27.32% | $3.55bn | 0.6074 | $2.16bn |
| Year 6 | 23.27% | $4.38bn | 0.5498 | $2.41bn |
| Year 7 | 19.21% | $5.22bn | 0.4976 | $2.60bn |
| Year 8 | 15.16% | $6.01bn | 0.4504 | $2.71bn |
| Year 9 | 11.11% | $6.67bn | 0.4076 | $2.72bn |
| Year 10 | 7.05% | $7.14bn | 0.3689 | $2.64bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.48% − 3%) | $98.31bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $36.27bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $21.34bn |
| Total present value | $57.62bn |
| Shares outstanding | 21.56m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $2,672.44 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 22.32% | Growth 27.32% | Growth 32.32% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | $2,403.51 | $3,174.41 | $4,167.66 |
| 10.48% | $2,032.32 | $2,672.44 | $3,495.33 |
| 11.48% | $1,751.15 | $2,292.80 | $2,987.53 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.36 | 11.25% | $2,373.39 |
| Peer beta | 1.21 | 10.57% | $2,633.99 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.19 | 10.48% | $2,672.44 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $2,672.44 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $2,672.44
Base value $2,672.44 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $162.34 and a 10% chance it is above $1,686.57 in a year; a 37% chance it is higher than today's $717.38, from 90.86% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.48% a year.
At $717.38 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 27.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $661.25 | $753.34 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $667.58 | $751.39 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $771.19 | $2,011.96 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $815.31 | $2,039.32 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $711.23 | $2,061.61 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $704.55 | $2,790.52 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $717.38 | $2,672.44 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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