On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Fiserv is $74.99 a share, 21.9% above its $61.50 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $74.99 | +21.9% | free cash flow $3.16bn, growth -1.71% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.13%; stress floor $60.35 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 17.7x is 2.1x the 8.4x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.84 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 0.84 (median of 8 S&P 500 Transaction & Payment Processing Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.84 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.89 (0.67 × 0.84 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.13% |
Free cash flow grows -1.71% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.16bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -1.71% | $3.10bn | 0.9163 | $2.84bn |
| Year 2 | -1.71% | $3.05bn | 0.8396 | $2.56bn |
| Year 3 | -1.71% | $3.00bn | 0.7693 | $2.31bn |
| Year 4 | -1.71% | $2.95bn | 0.7049 | $2.08bn |
| Year 5 | -1.71% | $2.90bn | 0.6459 | $1.87bn |
| Year 6 | -0.92% | $2.87bn | 0.5919 | $1.70bn |
| Year 7 | -0.14% | $2.87bn | 0.5423 | $1.55bn |
| Year 8 | 0.65% | $2.88bn | 0.4969 | $1.43bn |
| Year 9 | 1.43% | $2.93bn | 0.4553 | $1.33bn |
| Year 10 | 2.22% | $2.99bn | 0.4172 | $1.25bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.13% − 3%) | $50.21bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $20.95bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $18.93bn |
| Total present value | $39.88bn |
| Shares outstanding | 531.80m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $74.99 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -6.71% | Growth -1.71% | Growth 3.29% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.13% | $64.84 | $88.79 | $121.27 |
| 9.13% | $55.36 | $74.99 | $101.45 |
| 10.13% | $48.49 | $65.02 | $87.19 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | $77.69 |
| Peer beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | $77.69 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.89 | 9.13% | $74.99 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $74.99 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $74.99
Base value $74.99 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $35.89 and a 10% chance it is above $105.46 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $61.50, from 41.84% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.13% a year.
At $61.50 the price implies free cash flow growing -5.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -1.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $44.36 | $96.15 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $45.63 | $96.75 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $47.55 | $97.64 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $49.86 | $98.96 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $50.02 | $98.60 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $62.88 | $78.17 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $61.50 | $74.99 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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