On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Comfort Systems USA is $2,665.39 a share, 136.3% above its $1,128.09 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | 11.13x spot |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $2,665.39 | +136.3% | earnings per share $50.75 valued at 24.74× (the stock's own median P/E) in 7 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $50.75 |
| Year 1 | 50.70% | $76.48 |
| Year 2 | 36.39% | $104.31 |
| Year 3 | 26.37% | $131.82 |
| Year 4 | 19.36% | $157.34 |
| Year 5 | 14.45% | $180.08 |
| Year 6 | 11.02% | $199.91 |
| Year 7 | 8.61% | $217.13 |
| Earnings per share in year 7 | $217.13 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 24.74× |
| Value in 7 years = earnings × P/E | $5,371.82 |
| Discounted at 10.53% over 7 years: ÷ 2.0154 | $2,665.39 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $2,665.39 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $2,665.39
Base value $2,665.39 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $366.14 and a 10% chance it is above $2,455.50 in a year; a 41% chance it is higher than today's $1,128.09, from 73.87% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.53% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $1,728.01 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $1,715.69 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $1,439.07 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $1,160.86 | $2,552.40 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $1,232.66 | $2,714.61 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $1,017.50 | $556.66 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $1,128.09 | $2,665.39 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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