On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for First Solar is $18.23 a share, 89.4% below its $172.30 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $18.23 | -89.4% | free cash flow $232.79m, growth -22.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.97%; plus net cash $12.06 a share; stress floor $21.65 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 18.0x is 2.4x the 7.5x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.74 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.44) |
| Peer beta | 1.83 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.77 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.52 (0.67 × 1.77 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.97% |
Free cash flow grows -22.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $232.79m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -22.80% | $179.71m | 0.8931 | $160.50m |
| Year 2 | -22.80% | $138.74m | 0.7976 | $110.66m |
| Year 3 | -22.80% | $107.11m | 0.7124 | $76.30m |
| Year 4 | -22.80% | $82.69m | 0.6362 | $52.60m |
| Year 5 | -22.80% | $63.83m | 0.5682 | $36.27m |
| Year 6 | -18.50% | $52.02m | 0.5074 | $26.40m |
| Year 7 | -14.20% | $44.64m | 0.4532 | $20.23m |
| Year 8 | -9.90% | $40.22m | 0.4047 | $16.28m |
| Year 9 | -5.60% | $37.97m | 0.3615 | $13.72m |
| Year 10 | -1.30% | $37.47m | 0.3228 | $12.10m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.97% − 3%) | $430.28m |
| Terminal value in today's money | $138.91m |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $525.06m |
| Total present value | $663.98m |
| Shares outstanding | 107.70m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $6.16 |
| Plus net cash per share | $12.06 |
| Value per share | $18.23 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -27.8% | Growth -22.8% | Growth -17.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.97% | $17.17 | $18.67 | $20.69 |
| 11.97% | $16.88 | $18.22 | $20.03 |
| 12.97% | $16.63 | $17.86 | $19.49 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.74 | 12.96% | $17.86 |
| Peer beta | 1.83 | 13.36% | $17.73 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.52 | 11.97% | $18.22 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $18.23 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $18.23
Base value $18.23 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $95.02 and a 10% chance it is above $316.62 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $172.30, from 46.72% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.97% a year.
At $172.30 the price implies free cash flow growing 37.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -22.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $174.61 | $126.71 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $177.82 | $124.75 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $172.64 | $124.37 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $171.99 | $125.31 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $174.40 | $18.31 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $201.14 | $220.21 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $172.30 | $18.23 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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