We publish no single base value for Fortive. Our valuation methods put it between $12.71 and $15.65 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $12.71 | -81.3% | free cash flow $1.09bn, growth -22.06% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.63%; stress floor $19.48 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $15.65 | -76.9% | earnings per share $3.12 valued at 15.49× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.02 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.98 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.00 (37% own, 63% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.00 (0.67 × 1.00 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.63% |
Free cash flow grows -22.06% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.09bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -22.06% | $846.04m | 0.9122 | $771.72m |
| Year 2 | -22.06% | $659.40m | 0.8320 | $548.65m |
| Year 3 | -22.06% | $513.94m | 0.7589 | $390.05m |
| Year 4 | -22.06% | $400.56m | 0.6923 | $277.30m |
| Year 5 | -22.06% | $312.20m | 0.6315 | $197.14m |
| Year 6 | -17.88% | $256.37m | 0.5760 | $147.67m |
| Year 7 | -13.71% | $221.23m | 0.5254 | $116.23m |
| Year 8 | -9.53% | $200.15m | 0.4793 | $95.92m |
| Year 9 | -5.35% | $189.43m | 0.4372 | $82.81m |
| Year 10 | -1.18% | $187.20m | 0.3988 | $74.65m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.63% − 3%) | $2.91bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $1.16bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $2.70bn |
| Total present value | $3.86bn |
| Shares outstanding | 303.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $12.71 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -27.06% | Growth -22.06% | Growth -17.06% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.63% | $10.55 | $14.10 | $19.02 |
| 9.63% | $9.65 | $12.71 | $16.90 |
| 10.63% | $8.96 | $11.65 | $15.31 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $12.60 |
| Peer beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $12.82 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.00 | 9.63% | $12.71 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.12 |
| Year 1 | -22.06% | $2.43 |
| Year 2 | -15.79% | $2.05 |
| Year 3 | -11.10% | $1.82 |
| Year 4 | -7.57% | $1.68 |
| Year 5 | -4.93% | $1.60 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.60 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.49× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $24.78 |
| Discounted at 9.63% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5836 | $15.65 |
We publish no single base value for Fortive. Our valuation methods put it between $12.71 and $15.65 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $52.42 and a 10% chance it is above $99.64 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $67.85, from 24.93% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.63% a year.
At $67.85 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -22.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $57.47 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $57.26 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $57.79 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $60.25 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $65.23 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $65.37 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $67.85 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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