We publish no single base value for General Mills. Our valuation methods put it between $26.51 and $45.77 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $45.77 | +36.5% | free cash flow $1.55bn, growth -4.49% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 6.97%; stress floor $36.02 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $26.51 | -20.9% | earnings per share $3.08 valued at 12.8× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | -0.01 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 0.27 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.13 (52% own, 48% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.41 (0.67 × 0.13 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 6.97% |
Marked for review: the 6.97% discount rate is below the 7%–13% range for US large caps, so it is marked for review.
Free cash flow grows -4.49% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.55bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.49% | $1.48bn | 0.9348 | $1.38bn |
| Year 2 | -4.49% | $1.41bn | 0.8738 | $1.23bn |
| Year 3 | -4.49% | $1.35bn | 0.8169 | $1.10bn |
| Year 4 | -4.49% | $1.29bn | 0.7636 | $982.43m |
| Year 5 | -4.49% | $1.23bn | 0.7138 | $877.14m |
| Year 6 | -3.24% | $1.19bn | 0.6673 | $793.37m |
| Year 7 | -1.99% | $1.17bn | 0.6238 | $726.86m |
| Year 8 | -0.75% | $1.16bn | 0.5831 | $674.40m |
| Year 9 | 0.50% | $1.16bn | 0.5451 | $633.60m |
| Year 10 | 1.75% | $1.18bn | 0.5095 | $602.67m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (6.97% − 3%) | $30.65bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $15.62bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $9.00bn |
| Total present value | $24.62bn |
| Shares outstanding | 537.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $45.77 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.49% | Growth -4.49% | Growth 0.51% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.97% | $42.59 | $60.11 | $84.32 |
| 6.97% | $32.90 | $45.77 | $63.43 |
| 7.97% | $27.06 | $37.16 | $50.93 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | -0.01 | 5.08% | $84.38 |
| Peer beta | 0.27 | 6.34% | $53.81 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.41 | 6.97% | $45.77 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.08 |
| Year 1 | -4.49% | $2.94 |
| Year 2 | -2.24% | $2.87 |
| Year 3 | -0.67% | $2.85 |
| Year 4 | 0.43% | $2.87 |
| Year 5 | 1.20% | $2.90 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.90 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.8× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $37.13 |
| Discounted at 6.97% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4009 | $26.51 |
We publish no single base value for General Mills. Our valuation methods put it between $26.51 and $45.77 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $21.23 and a 10% chance it is above $53.25 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $33.52, from 35.7% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 6.97% a year.
At $33.52 the price implies free cash flow growing -9.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $32.01 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $32.29 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $33.13 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $34.39 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $34.29 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $35.51 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $33.52 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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