On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Generac is $114.79 a share, 40.5% below its $192.88 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $114.79 | -40.5% | free cash flow $414.49m, growth 6.13% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.48%; stress floor $75.84 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 22.8x is 1.6x the 13.8x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.86 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.44) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.29 (33% own, 67% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.19 (0.67 × 1.29 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.48% |
Free cash flow grows 6.13% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $414.49m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.13% | $439.90m | 0.9051 | $398.15m |
| Year 2 | 6.13% | $466.87m | 0.8192 | $382.46m |
| Year 3 | 6.13% | $495.48m | 0.7415 | $367.38m |
| Year 4 | 6.13% | $525.86m | 0.6711 | $352.90m |
| Year 5 | 6.13% | $558.09m | 0.6074 | $338.99m |
| Year 6 | 5.61% | $589.39m | 0.5498 | $324.03m |
| Year 7 | 5.09% | $619.37m | 0.4976 | $308.20m |
| Year 8 | 4.56% | $647.65m | 0.4504 | $291.68m |
| Year 9 | 4.04% | $673.83m | 0.4076 | $274.68m |
| Year 10 | 3.52% | $697.56m | 0.3689 | $257.37m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.48% − 3%) | $9.60bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.54bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $3.30bn |
| Total present value | $6.84bn |
| Shares outstanding | 59.56m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $114.79 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 1.13% | Growth 6.13% | Growth 11.13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | $98.84 | $133.15 | — |
| 10.48% | $85.91 | $114.79 | — |
| 11.48% | $76.01 | $100.79 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.86 | 13.50% | $80.74 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $129.23 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.19 | 10.48% | $114.79 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $114.79 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $114.79
Base value $114.79 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $75.01 and a 10% chance it is above $397.81 in a year; a 44% chance it is higher than today's $192.88, from 64.76% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.48% a year.
At $192.88 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 6.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $216.80 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $224.94 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $192.68 | $75.54 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $186.92 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $197.93 | $117.99 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $176.78 | $119.12 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $192.88 | $114.79 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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