On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) is $516.21 a share, 72.8% above its $298.70 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the free cash flow base is 0.53% of market cap (floor 1%) — the terminal value carries the answer, not the cash flows |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $516.21 | +72.8% | earnings per share $19.56 valued at 23.7× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Google Services' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.56 |
| Year 1 | 22.21% | $23.91 |
| Year 2 | 15.49% | $27.61 |
| Year 3 | 11.12% | $30.68 |
| Year 4 | 8.28% | $33.22 |
| Year 5 | 6.43% | $35.35 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $35.35 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.7× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $837.81 |
| Discounted at 10.17% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6230 | $516.21 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $516.21 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $516.21
Base value $516.21 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $197.06 and a 10% chance it is above $487.50 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $298.70, from 35.16% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.17% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $343.50 | $458.70 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $351.66 | $460.86 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $340.59 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $320.21 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $279.84 | $524.81 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $284.78 | $521.50 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $298.70 | $516.21 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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