We publish no single base value for Genuine Parts Company. Our valuation methods put it between $94.29 and $104.16 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $104.16 | -15.2% | free cash flow $762.85m, growth 4.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.87%; stress floor $68.58 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $94.29 | -23.2% | earnings per share $7.59 valued at 15.87× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.65 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.75 (78% own, 22% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.83 (0.67 × 0.75 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.87% |
Free cash flow grows 4.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $762.85m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.20% | $794.89m | 0.9186 | $730.16m |
| Year 2 | 4.20% | $828.27m | 0.8438 | $698.87m |
| Year 3 | 4.20% | $863.06m | 0.7751 | $668.92m |
| Year 4 | 4.20% | $899.31m | 0.7119 | $640.26m |
| Year 5 | 4.20% | $937.08m | 0.6540 | $612.82m |
| Year 6 | 4.00% | $974.56m | 0.6007 | $585.44m |
| Year 7 | 3.80% | $1.01bn | 0.5518 | $558.20m |
| Year 8 | 3.60% | $1.05bn | 0.5069 | $531.20m |
| Year 9 | 3.40% | $1.08bn | 0.4656 | $504.54m |
| Year 10 | 3.20% | $1.12bn | 0.4277 | $478.28m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.87% − 3%) | $19.64bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.40bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $6.01bn |
| Total present value | $14.41bn |
| Shares outstanding | 138.33m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $104.16 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.8% | Growth 4.2% | Growth 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.87% | $91.96 | $125.83 | — |
| 8.87% | $76.83 | $104.16 | — |
| 9.87% | $66.09 | $88.81 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.65 | 8.05% | $121.05 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $84.98 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.83 | 8.87% | $104.16 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.59 |
| Year 1 | 4.20% | $7.91 |
| Year 2 | 3.84% | $8.21 |
| Year 3 | 3.59% | $8.51 |
| Year 4 | 3.41% | $8.80 |
| Year 5 | 3.29% | $9.08 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.08 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.87× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $144.17 |
| Discounted at 8.87% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5291 | $94.29 |
We publish no single base value for Genuine Parts Company. Our valuation methods put it between $94.29 and $104.16 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $93.65 and a 10% chance it is above $179.70 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $122.84, from 25.3% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.87% a year.
At $122.84 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $127.24 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $127.02 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $133.96 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $123.02 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $120.90 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $122.80 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $122.84 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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