We publish no single base value for Garmin. Our valuation methods put it between $219.36 and $249.12 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $219.36 | -23.3% | free cash flow $1.40bn, growth 12.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.45%; plus net cash $20.11 a share; stress floor $125.29 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $249.12 | -12.9% | earnings per share $10.79 valued at 24.02× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.90 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.95 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.96 (0.67 × 0.95 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.45% |
Free cash flow grows 12.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.40bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.20% | $1.57bn | 0.9137 | $1.44bn |
| Year 2 | 12.20% | $1.77bn | 0.8348 | $1.47bn |
| Year 3 | 12.20% | $1.98bn | 0.7627 | $1.51bn |
| Year 4 | 12.20% | $2.22bn | 0.6968 | $1.55bn |
| Year 5 | 12.20% | $2.49bn | 0.6367 | $1.59bn |
| Year 6 | 10.67% | $2.76bn | 0.5817 | $1.61bn |
| Year 7 | 9.13% | $3.01bn | 0.5315 | $1.60bn |
| Year 8 | 7.60% | $3.24bn | 0.4856 | $1.57bn |
| Year 9 | 6.07% | $3.44bn | 0.4437 | $1.52bn |
| Year 10 | 4.53% | $3.59bn | 0.4054 | $1.46bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.45% − 3%) | $57.38bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $23.26bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $15.32bn |
| Total present value | $38.58bn |
| Shares outstanding | 193.62m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $199.25 |
| Plus net cash per share | $20.11 |
| Value per share | $219.36 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 7.2% | Growth 12.2% | Growth 17.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.45% | — | $259.22 | $341.43 |
| 9.45% | $168.60 | $219.36 | $286.25 |
| 10.45% | $147.83 | — | $246.15 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $228.83 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $197.63 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.96 | 9.45% | $219.36 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.79 |
| Year 1 | 12.20% | $12.10 |
| Year 2 | 9.90% | $13.30 |
| Year 3 | 8.18% | $14.39 |
| Year 4 | 6.88% | $15.38 |
| Year 5 | 5.91% | $16.29 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $16.29 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 24.02× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $391.28 |
| Discounted at 9.45% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5706 | $249.12 |
We publish no single base value for Garmin. Our valuation methods put it between $219.36 and $249.12 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $204.85 and a 10% chance it is above $440.06 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $286.18, from 29.68% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.45% a year.
At $286.18 the price implies free cash flow growing 17.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 12.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $281.16 | $213.05 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $268.36 | $214.81 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $284.79 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $293.74 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $272.67 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $285.57 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $286.18 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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