We publish no single base value for Hasbro. Our valuation methods put it between $114.56 and $331.22 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $331.22 | +172.7% | free cash flow $1.20bn, growth 15% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.41%; stress floor $152.13 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $114.56 | -5.7% | earnings per share $7.12 valued at 14.78× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.36 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.28) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.60 (69% own, 31% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.73 (0.67 × 0.60 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.41% |
Free cash flow grows 15.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.20bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 15.00% | $1.38bn | 0.9224 | $1.28bn |
| Year 2 | 15.00% | $1.59bn | 0.8508 | $1.35bn |
| Year 3 | 15.00% | $1.83bn | 0.7848 | $1.43bn |
| Year 4 | 15.00% | $2.10bn | 0.7238 | $1.52bn |
| Year 5 | 15.00% | $2.42bn | 0.6677 | $1.61bn |
| Year 6 | 13.00% | $2.73bn | 0.6158 | $1.68bn |
| Year 7 | 11.00% | $3.03bn | 0.5680 | $1.72bn |
| Year 8 | 9.00% | $3.31bn | 0.5239 | $1.73bn |
| Year 9 | 7.00% | $3.54bn | 0.4833 | $1.71bn |
| Year 10 | 5.00% | $3.71bn | 0.4458 | $1.66bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.41% − 3%) | $70.65bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $31.50bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $15.70bn |
| Total present value | $47.20bn |
| Shares outstanding | 142.50m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $331.22 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 10% | Growth 15% | Growth 20% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.41% | $304.94 | $413.68 | $557.30 |
| 8.41% | — | $331.22 | $443.68 |
| 9.41% | — | $274.76 | $366.02 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $493.16 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $242.73 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.73 | 8.41% | $331.22 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.12 |
| Year 1 | 15.00% | $8.18 |
| Year 2 | 12.00% | $9.17 |
| Year 3 | 9.75% | $10.06 |
| Year 4 | 8.06% | $10.87 |
| Year 5 | 6.80% | $11.61 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $11.61 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.78× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $171.58 |
| Discounted at 8.41% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4978 | $114.56 |
We publish no single base value for Hasbro. Our valuation methods put it between $114.56 and $331.22 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $85.10 and a 10% chance it is above $186.15 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $121.48, from 30.38% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.41% a year.
At $121.48 the price implies free cash flow growing -1.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 15.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $89.54 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $93.32 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $98.76 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $117.44 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $119.09 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $118.91 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $121.48 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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