We publish no single base value for Home Depot (The). Our valuation methods put it between $233.37 and $233.94 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $233.37 | -33.0% | free cash flow $15.10bn, growth 2.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.5%; stress floor $166.54 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $233.94 | -32.8% | earnings per share $15.02 valued at 21.41× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.93 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.96 (85% own, 15% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.97 (0.67 × 0.96 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.50% |
Free cash flow grows 2.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.10bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.50% | $15.48bn | 0.9133 | $14.14bn |
| Year 2 | 2.50% | $15.87bn | 0.8341 | $13.23bn |
| Year 3 | 2.50% | $16.26bn | 0.7618 | $12.39bn |
| Year 4 | 2.50% | $16.67bn | 0.6957 | $11.60bn |
| Year 5 | 2.50% | $17.09bn | 0.6354 | $10.86bn |
| Year 6 | 2.58% | $17.53bn | 0.5803 | $10.17bn |
| Year 7 | 2.67% | $17.99bn | 0.5300 | $9.54bn |
| Year 8 | 2.75% | $18.49bn | 0.4840 | $8.95bn |
| Year 9 | 2.83% | $19.01bn | 0.4420 | $8.40bn |
| Year 10 | 2.92% | $19.57bn | 0.4037 | $7.90bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.50% − 3%) | $310.31bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $125.27bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $107.17bn |
| Total present value | $232.44bn |
| Shares outstanding | 996.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $233.37 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.5% | Growth 2.5% | Growth 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | $202.40 | $275.60 | — |
| 9.50% | $173.01 | $233.37 | — |
| 10.50% | $151.39 | $202.40 | $270.31 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $239.99 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $211.52 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.97 | 9.50% | $233.37 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.02 |
| Year 1 | 2.50% | $15.39 |
| Year 2 | 2.67% | $15.80 |
| Year 3 | 2.79% | $16.25 |
| Year 4 | 2.86% | $16.71 |
| Year 5 | 2.91% | $17.20 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $17.20 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 21.41× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $368.19 |
| Discounted at 9.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5739 | $233.94 |
We publish no single base value for Home Depot (The). Our valuation methods put it between $233.37 and $233.94 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $251.35 and a 10% chance it is above $533.18 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $348.26, from 29.19% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.5% a year.
At $348.26 the price implies free cash flow growing 9.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $282.85 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $290.74 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $309.63 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $319.83 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $329.20 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $343.47 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $348.26 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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