We publish no single base value for Hartford (The). Our valuation methods put it between $109.27 and $584.71 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $584.71 | +327.1% | free cash flow $6.98bn, growth 3.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $361.89 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $109.27 | -20.2% | earnings per share $13.27 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.7×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.48 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 0.22 (median of 7 S&P 500 Property & Casualty Insurance companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.33 (41% own, 59% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.33 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows 3.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.98bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.90% | $7.25bn | 0.9293 | $6.74bn |
| Year 2 | 3.90% | $7.54bn | 0.8636 | $6.51bn |
| Year 3 | 3.90% | $7.83bn | 0.8026 | $6.28bn |
| Year 4 | 3.90% | $8.14bn | 0.7459 | $6.07bn |
| Year 5 | 3.90% | $8.45bn | 0.6932 | $5.86bn |
| Year 6 | 3.75% | $8.77bn | 0.6442 | $5.65bn |
| Year 7 | 3.60% | $9.09bn | 0.5986 | $5.44bn |
| Year 8 | 3.45% | $9.40bn | 0.5563 | $5.23bn |
| Year 9 | 3.30% | $9.71bn | 0.5170 | $5.02bn |
| Year 10 | 3.15% | $10.01bn | 0.4805 | $4.81bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $224.00bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $107.63bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $57.61bn |
| Total present value | $165.24bn |
| Shares outstanding | 282.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $584.71 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.1% | Growth 3.9% | Growth 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | $539.71 | $748.17 | $1,030.07 |
| 7.61% | $426.10 | $584.71 | — |
| 8.61% | $352.87 | $479.61 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.48 | 7.29% | $627.97 |
| Peer beta | 0.22 | 6.12% | $865.21 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $584.71 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.27 |
| Year 1 | 3.90% | $13.79 |
| Year 2 | 3.63% | $14.29 |
| Year 3 | 3.44% | $14.78 |
| Year 4 | 3.31% | $15.27 |
| Year 5 | 3.22% | $15.76 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.76 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.7×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $157.64 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $109.27 |
We publish no single base value for Hartford (The). Our valuation methods put it between $109.27 and $584.71 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $109.64 and a 10% chance it is above $189.55 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $136.90, from 21.25% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $136.90 the price implies free cash flow growing -18.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $126.05 | $110.78 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $129.11 | $110.32 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $135.12 | $112.54 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $136.76 | $113.74 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $132.59 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $133.99 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $136.90 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on HIG · Hartford (The) company page · Call and put prices