We publish no single base value for Huntington Ingalls Industries. Our valuation methods put it between $297.01 and $359.67 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $359.67 | +16.7% | free cash flow $372.00m, growth 10.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.38%; stress floor $175.02 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $297.01 | -3.7% | earnings per share $19.67 valued at 15.15× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.17 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 11 S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.26 (88% own, 12% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.50 (0.67 × 0.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.38% |
Free cash flow grows 10.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $372.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 10.80% | $412.18m | 0.9313 | $383.85m |
| Year 2 | 10.80% | $456.69m | 0.8673 | $396.07m |
| Year 3 | 10.80% | $506.01m | 0.8077 | $408.69m |
| Year 4 | 10.80% | $560.66m | 0.7522 | $421.70m |
| Year 5 | 10.80% | $621.21m | 0.7005 | $435.14m |
| Year 6 | 9.50% | $680.23m | 0.6523 | $443.73m |
| Year 7 | 8.20% | $736.01m | 0.6075 | $447.12m |
| Year 8 | 6.90% | $786.79m | 0.5657 | $445.12m |
| Year 9 | 5.60% | $830.85m | 0.5269 | $437.74m |
| Year 10 | 4.30% | $866.58m | 0.4906 | $425.18m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.38% − 3%) | $20.38bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $10.00bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.24bn |
| Total present value | $14.24bn |
| Shares outstanding | 39.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $359.67 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 5.8% | Growth 10.8% | Growth 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.38% | — | $472.28 | $644.46 |
| 7.38% | — | $359.67 | $487.51 |
| 8.38% | $213.55 | $289.14 | $389.37 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.17 | 5.89% | $555.06 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.50 | 7.38% | $359.67 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.67 |
| Year 1 | 10.80% | $21.80 |
| Year 2 | 8.46% | $23.64 |
| Year 3 | 6.82% | $25.25 |
| Year 4 | 5.68% | $26.69 |
| Year 5 | 4.87% | $27.99 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $27.99 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.15× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $424.02 |
| Discounted at 7.38% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4276 | $297.01 |
We publish no single base value for Huntington Ingalls Industries. Our valuation methods put it between $297.01 and $359.67 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $189.36 and a 10% chance it is above $501.29 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $308.33, from 37.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.38% a year.
At $308.33 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 10.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $268.54 | $251.70 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $264.80 | $252.87 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $272.00 | $272.43 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $274.08 | $273.49 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $316.88 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $288.74 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $308.33 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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