We publish no single base value for Honeywell Technologies. Our valuation methods put it between $28.38 and $44.35 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $28.38 | -87.3% | free cash flow $1.28bn, growth -11.01% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.22%; stress floor $30.88 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $44.35 | -80.2% | earnings per share $8.42 valued at 10.5× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.83 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.87 (77% own, 23% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 (0.67 × 0.87 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.22% |
Free cash flow grows -11.01% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.28bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -11.01% | $1.14bn | 0.9155 | $1.04bn |
| Year 2 | -11.01% | $1.01bn | 0.8382 | $847.01m |
| Year 3 | -11.01% | $899.24m | 0.7674 | $690.09m |
| Year 4 | -11.01% | $800.23m | 0.7026 | $562.25m |
| Year 5 | -11.01% | $712.13m | 0.6433 | $458.09m |
| Year 6 | -8.68% | $650.35m | 0.5889 | $383.01m |
| Year 7 | -6.34% | $609.12m | 0.5392 | $328.43m |
| Year 8 | -4.00% | $584.72m | 0.4937 | $288.65m |
| Year 9 | -1.67% | $574.96m | 0.4520 | $259.86m |
| Year 10 | 0.66% | $578.78m | 0.4138 | $239.49m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.22% − 3%) | $9.58bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.96bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $5.10bn |
| Total present value | $9.06bn |
| Shares outstanding | 319.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $28.38 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -16.01% | Growth -11.01% | Growth -6.01% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.22% | $24.01 | $32.80 | $44.90 |
| 9.22% | $21.06 | $28.38 | $38.38 |
| 10.22% | $18.89 | $25.15 | $33.63 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.83 | 8.87% | $29.80 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $26.66 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.91 | 9.22% | $28.38 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.42 |
| Year 1 | -11.01% | $7.49 |
| Year 2 | -6.81% | $6.98 |
| Year 3 | -3.86% | $6.71 |
| Year 4 | -1.81% | $6.59 |
| Year 5 | -0.36% | $6.57 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.57 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.5× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $68.94 |
| Discounted at 9.22% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5546 | $44.35 |
We publish no single base value for Honeywell Technologies. Our valuation methods put it between $28.38 and $44.35 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $174.56 and a 10% chance it is above $323.52 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $223.45, from 23.95% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.22% a year.
At $223.45 the price implies free cash flow growing 23.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -11.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $213.99 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $207.73 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $211.41 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $221.15 | $171.29 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $218.33 | $29.39 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $220.05 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $223.45 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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