On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Honeywell Aerospace is $127.45 a share, 23.3% below its $166.23 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $127.45 | -23.3% | free cash flow $2.29bn, growth 2.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.64%; stress floor $87.96 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | none measured |
| Peer beta | 0.67 (median of 12 S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.67 (0% own, 100% peers, two-thirds own, one-third peers) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.78 (0.67 × 0.67 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.64% |
Free cash flow grows 2.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.29bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.40% | $2.35bn | 0.9205 | $2.16bn |
| Year 2 | 2.40% | $2.41bn | 0.8473 | $2.04bn |
| Year 3 | 2.40% | $2.46bn | 0.7799 | $1.92bn |
| Year 4 | 2.40% | $2.52bn | 0.7179 | $1.81bn |
| Year 5 | 2.40% | $2.58bn | 0.6608 | $1.71bn |
| Year 6 | 2.50% | $2.65bn | 0.6082 | $1.61bn |
| Year 7 | 2.60% | $2.72bn | 0.5599 | $1.52bn |
| Year 8 | 2.70% | $2.79bn | 0.5153 | $1.44bn |
| Year 9 | 2.80% | $2.87bn | 0.4743 | $1.36bn |
| Year 10 | 2.90% | $2.95bn | 0.4366 | $1.29bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.64% − 3%) | $53.91bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $23.54bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.86bn |
| Total present value | $40.40bn |
| Shares outstanding | 317.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $127.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.6% | Growth 2.4% | Growth 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.64% | $112.66 | $154.75 | — |
| 8.64% | $93.72 | $127.45 | — |
| 9.64% | $80.44 | $108.37 | $145.70 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer beta | 0.67 | 8.14% | $139.64 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.78 | 8.64% | $127.45 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $127.45 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $127.45
Base value $127.45 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $89.85 and a 10% chance it is above $293.66 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $166.23, from 45.97% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.64% a year.
At $166.23 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $154.63 | $151.56 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $157.94 | $152.53 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $168.09 | $211.86 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $163.31 | $215.11 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $154.15 | $132.01 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $152.92 | $133.65 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $166.23 | $127.45 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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